Virginia vs Duke prediction and college basketball betting picks for the ACC matchup on February 28th.
The Virginia Cavaliers are taking on the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday in what will be a huge game that will likely decide the ACC regular-season title. Let’s take you through the top college basketball betting picks, odds, betting trends and Haslametrics, then give our Virginia vs Duke prediction for the game tonight.
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Virginia vs Duke Prediction | ACC Basketball
No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers (25-3, 13-2 ACC) vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (26-2, 14-1 ACC)
Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium — Durham, NC
Coverage: ESPN
Virginia vs Duke College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Virginia vs Duke can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: UVA: (+500) | DUKE: (-700)
Point Spread: UVA: +10.5 (-110) | DUKE: -10.5 (-110)
Total: 141.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Haslametrics Rankings
Haslametrics Rankings are from Haslametrics.com
| Team | Rank | Pace | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Momentum |
| Virginia | 9 | 64.83 (281st) | 125.34 (18th) | 95.19 (12th) | 1.55 (115th) |
| Duke | 2 | 65.37 (259th) | 128.47 (6th) | 88.72 (1st) | 3.97 (37th) |
According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Duke Blue Devils are projected to get past the Virginia Cavaliers, 73-64.
Virginia vs Duke College Basketball Betting Trends
- Virginia is 2-3 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
- The UNDER is 3-2 in Virginia’s last five games.
- Duke is 3-2 ATS over their last five games.
- The UNDER is 12-6 for Duke in their last 18 home games.
Virginia Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
One of the most surprising teams in college basketball this year, the Virginia Cavaliers are not to be taken lightly. While their schedule is one of the worst in the nation for a Power Five team, they have taken care of business when needed. Out of their three losses, two have either come on the road or against a ranked opponent. This game will serve as a great barometer for the Cavaliers heading into the NCAA Tournament, as they have played just two games against teams currently ranked in the AP polls.
Virginia has won nine straight games since losing a close contest to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Like they were under Tony Bennett in the past, they play with a slow pace, a methodical offense, and a hard-nosed defense. Their offense is led by forward Thijs De Ridder and three of their starting guards, Malik Thomas, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory. The four all average over 10 points per game and combine to average over 49 points while making up over 60% of Virginia’s offensive production.
One of the biggest reasons that Virginia is able to be so consistent and not lose games they shouldn’t is because they don’t give games away. While many may think this can only include turnovers, it also includes crashing the glass. Virginia excels at this, ranking 18th in the nation in rebounds per game with over 41 boards per game. Of course, it certainly helps that they have two centers that are over seven feet tall that can help in that department.
Duke Basketball Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks
Every year, you can play the “shoulda, coulda, woulda” game with any team and frame their season and success as much more impressive than it is. While I do try to stay away from playing that game, it’s pretty shocking how good Duke basketball is and how close they are to still being undefeated right now. The Blue Devils have dropped two games this season. One was a loss to Texas Tech by one on a neutral site in a game in which they blew a 17-point second-half lead. Their other loss came at the hands of their rivals in North Carolina on the road via a buzzer-beater three-pointer by Seth Trimble in a game where they also had multiple double-digit leads in the second half.
While some may question their inability to finish the job, as seen in their collapse to Houston in the Final Four last year, I see it as a team that can only be beaten by themselves or by a team that just goes unconscious shooting from the field. All the attention and accolades go to freshman phenom Cameron Boozer, but it’s important to realize this team is much more than just him, too. Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba II combine to average over 25 points per game and are able to spread out defenses with offensive production coming from guards, forwards and centers alike.
If there is one weakness on this Duke team, it’s their three-point shooting. As a team, Duke shoots just a hair under 35%. Outside of Cameron Boozer and Caleb Foster, Duke has just one player in their top eight in minutes played that shoots over 35% from deep. While it is certainly a positive to have two absolutely lethal shooters in Forster and Boozer, they can and will run into a lot of trouble if one or both of them start to go cold from downtown. In a game where Virginia won’t give them many second chances with how they crash the glass, it’ll be crucial that they can get their shots to fall.
Virginia vs Duke Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
I don’t think anyone in the country thinks that Duke shouldn’t win this game on paper and on the court. It’s pretty rare to see a matchup between two highly ranked teams with a spread of over 10 points. With that being said, there is certainly an avenue for Virginia to win this game or at least cover the spread. Virginia plays an elite brand of defense and will make life miserable for Duke unless the Blue Devils can make some really tough shots for a full 40 minutes.
If Duke cannot do that, which they have struggled to do plenty of times this season, Virginia’s ability to crash the glass will keep this game much closer than many may be expecting. While I do see Duke eventually pulling away and winning this game, it will come down to the final few minutes, assuming Virginia’s offense doesn’t fail to show up or Duke doesn’t hit every possible shot for a full 40 minutes. For that reason, take Virginia to cover a massive spread, even on the road in a hostile environment.
Our Virginia vs Duke college basketball betting prediction tonight will be VIRGINIA +10.5 at BetUS. Sign up through our link to get a welcome bonus of up to $3,625 tonight!
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Duke an 88.1% chance to win.
Bet: VIRGINIA +10.5
Top-25 College Basketball Games Today
Here are the ranked top-25 college basketball games today!
- Colorado vs (5) Houston
- Seton Hall vs (6) UConn
- (24) Louisville vs Clemson
- (25) Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
- (14) Kansas vs (2) Arizona
- (16) Texas Tech vs (4) Iowa State
- (12) Nebraska vs USC
- (19) BYU vs West Virginia
- (17) Alabama vs (22) Tennessee
- Villanova vs (15) St. John’s
- Duquesne vs (23) Saint Louis
- (20) Arkansas vs (7) Florida
- Virginia Tech vs (18) North Carolina
- (9) Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s
