Who should you bet on to challenge either (likely) Rhea Ripley or Iyo Sky for a championship at WrestleMania? Here are the best picks, in my opinion, for the winner of the Women’s WWE Royal Rumble in 2024.
Likelihoods to Win Women’s WWE Royal Rumble
Slim: Would be a complete shock, but not impossible
Outside Chance: Unlikely, but there’s some momentum behind them at the moment
Dark Horse: Could win and would have direction, just not the most likely direction
Favorite: Has a clear path to WrestleMania and storyline coming out of the Rumble
CLICK HERE for the most likely winners for the Men’s WWE Royal Rumble 2024!
WWE Royal Rumble 2024: Most Likely Winners For Women’s Rumble
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10 – Roxanne Perez (+3500)
Likelihood to Win: Slim
If WWE wanted to pick an up-and-comer to push to the moon, it would be this NXT stand-out. Seemingly, Triple H and Shawn Michaels’ crown jewel of the next crop of women stars, Roxanne Perez is sure to be a feature in the 2024 WWR Royal Rumble. However, without even debuting, her chances of winning are still slim to none.
9 – Alexa Bliss (+900)
Likelihood to Win: Slim
The appeal of rebuilding Alexa Bliss into one of the best heels in the business is obvious, and a big return and even win would do that. I think Bliss could make a win make a ton of sense if given the right direction. However, the lack of push before her absence and bigger return possibilities dampen the opportunities for Bliss this year.
8 – Nia Jax (+800)
Likelihood to Win: Slim
Recently, WWE has done wonderfully to return Nia Jax to her peak image as a monster to be feared. I have no doubt she will be one of the leaders if not the clear favorite for most eliminations this year. But in terms of winning the WWE Royal Rumble, I think she’s not quite at that level yet. Rather, having a shock elimination lead to a big feud before her main event resurgence could be the better move here.
7 – Liv Morgan (+900)
Likelihood to Win: Outsider
WWE under Triple H made Liv Morgan one of the earliest pushes, and perhaps that will mean a surprising win for Morgan. It could make even more sense as Morgan’s past with Rhea Ripley as champion is also very exciting to think about. I simply think Liv is doing too little right now to warrant that sudden push, especially when Ripley has more recent feuds to draw from as well.
6 – Kairi Sane (+700)
Likelihood to Win: Outsider
The main doubt here is that Damage Ctrl has other storylines to draw from, and Kairi vs. Iyo is actually the least likely of those routes. Sane though has been well protected since her debut, and perhaps some shenanigans lead to a Damage Ctrl win. Sane would be very deserving, but that is a little too swervy for my sake of current storylines.
5 – Bianca Belair (+700)
Likelihood to Win: Dark Horse
Bianca Belair isn’t featured in either of the current championship pictures and has had plenty of shine in the past which makes me think she might miss her first women’s main event at WrestleMania in four years. However, that past significance means she should always be thought of as an option to win, even an unlikely one. Belair vs. Ripley or Iyo would be a blast, but the idea of Belair winning again could be daunting for some worn-out fans.
4 – Bayley (-150)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
Disclaimer again, Bayley and every other favorite might win this thing. In fact, I feel a little crazy only having Bayley fourth when she’s been the best character and focus of the Women’s division for most of the year. I think it’s a certainty Bayley will be in the match for the Smackdown belt at Mania, but is this too early to cement that? Having Damage Ctrl’s cracks come from elsewhere and a redemption arc for Bayley feels like a better pace to me.
3 – Becky Lynch (+150)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
Lynch vs. Ripley has all the makings of a feud of the year, and shouldn’t be missed at this time. Becky Lynch also continues to be the most “over” woman, if not the most over wrestler, in the whole company. So, why not our top pick? Because she might need time to heat up. A story is set up but hasn’t been started for The Man vs. Mami, so a 2024 WWE Royal Rumble win could be jumping a couple of key steps. It’s obvious, which isn’t always bad, but this year could be a reason to doubt. For me, if you want chalk, you pick Becky. But, I think with an obvious winner in the Men’s Rumble likely, I think a return could lead to a win instead.
2 – Sasha Banks (+500)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
Sasha Banks returning is just a little less likely than our number one choice. Sasha winning the Rumble, and helping her buddy Bayley join her in the main event of WrestleMania, makes a lot of sense. But, I think causing a disruption without winning could make just as much sense. The biggest reason for Sasha’s win is she should be packaged as the biggest star of the company, and this would ensure that. But, I’m not certain enough that her debut will happen here to make her my number one.
1 – Jade Cargill (+250)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
A debut/return win was touched on above, but this is the best in my opinion. You shoot Jade Cargill to the top of the scene. She can add drama to both title pictures before most likely sliding into a Rhea and Lynch Triple Threat (saving Ripley vs. Lynch for next year). This also does all this while giving Jade more time to sharpen her skills. She comes in, dominates, hits the high notes of her skillset, wins the WWE Royal Rumble, and then has time to build up to her first big match. While not the most obvious of the favorites, the peaks of Jade’s win are too good to resist.
