With rumors being Seth Rollins and Roman Reigns will still be the two men’s champions at WrestleMania, who is most likely to punch their ticket to the Showcase of the Immortals by winning the 2024 WWE Royal Rumble?
Likelihoods to Win Men’s WWE Royal Rumble
Slim: Would be a complete shock, but not impossible
Outside Chance: Unlikely, but there’s some momentum behind them at the moment
Dark Horse: Could win and would have direction, just not the most likely direction
Favorite: Has a clear path to WrestleMania and storyline coming out of the Rumble
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WWE Royal Rumble 2024: Most Likely Winners For Men’s Rumble
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10 – John Cena (+10000)
Likelihood to Win: Slim
In John Cena’s last appearance, he teased the beginning of the end, with his recent string of losses seeming to signal an impending retirement for the Champ. If this is true, perhaps one more triumphant moment before a WrestleMania send-off could make sense. I don’t see this as the most natural path to that big, last match, but it is a possibility, especially with Reigns, Rollins, The Rock, and Punk as all mouth-watering options for that last chance at “the record-breaking” championship match.
9 – AJ Styles (+5000)
Likelihood to Win: Slim
AJ Styles has a good push following his character re-package and return, seeing him thrust into the championship scene. A WrestleMania main event could be a great push for the Lone Wolf, especially if WWE decided they wanted someone to lose a match against the incumbent while continuing to build Styles back up to his main event past. However, there are simply too many better options at this time.
8 – Gunther (+125)
Likelihood to Win: Outsider
Gunther is possibly the most cherished and protected star in all of WWE right now, and capitalizing on that without taking the Intercontinental Championship off him might be the best way to preserve this aura. However, would that tarnish the moment someone dethrones the monster? The runner-up from a year ago is sure to be a threat in the rumble, but more than likely his night ends setting up his own Mania challenger rather than as a Mania main-eventer.
7 – Jey Uso (+2000)
Likelihood to Win: Outsider
Main Event Jey Uso surely would fit right into the Showcase of the Immortals’ biggest match, but unfortunately, I’m not sure the timing is quite right. While Jey being the one to dethrone Reigns still makes a lot of sense, doing so before beating his brother seems off. Also, his story doesn’t need to be taking the title, so perhaps the feud after Mania for Reigns before his anticipated hiatus could be more apt.
6 – Randy Orton (+600)
Likelihood to Win: Outsider
Randy Orton is currently being pushed as a threat to Reigns and has overall been a threat that Reigns has avoided so far. He’s also a decent option to insert into a Cody Rhodes storyline for Mania. But, it seems more likely this push is as a challenger to either belt rather than the one who ultimately faces either champion.
5 – The Rock (+500)
Likelihood to Win: Dark Horse
The Rock has already announced his intent to face Reigns and challenge his claim as “Head of the Table,” which has sparked Mania rumors. The question now is if WWE will use the Rumble as the tool to get us to that match. This match certainly doesn’t need the Rumble to set it up, and many are wondering if the belt would be a distraction to this headlining match. Because this could happen anytime, including before or after Mania, and still feel monumental, The Rock shouldn’t be a favorite. However, the wrinkle of him possibly stealing a certain Second-City Saint’s spotlight one more time does make him at least a dark horse.
4 – Big E (+5000)
Likelihood to Win: Dark Horse
Simply put, if Big E returns, shouldn’t he win? He would immediately be probably the most “over” man in the company, and the sheer miraculousness of his return would be deserving of a crowning push to a spot he should have never lost. Unfortunately, the doubt here is about his health rather than how much the company would be behind him. But, get well soon Big E, and if there’s even a chance, then he needs to be this high on the list.
3 – Drew McIntyre (+700)
Likelihood to Win: Dark Horse
Drew McIntyre has made himself unignorable as a top contender in the 2024 WWE Royal Rumble. His character work is top-notch at the moment, and he would be welcome in any feud he would find himself in. The true definition of a dark horse, as two more obvious and straightforward winners might deny Drew, but a win would still make a lot of sense. If WWE wants the outcome of the Rumble to be chaos, however, this could be the most flexible route.
2 – Cody Rhodes (+150)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
Our top two picks will be in the two championship feuds of WrestleMania, but the question is how they get there and if those matches will be one-on-one affairs or multi-man matches. Cody Rhodes in the main event of Mania vs. Reigns is a no-brainer in my opinion, but between the two favorites, his path needs the win the least. Rhodes could be at risk of being too predictable or being booed for his obvious push, and having him be robbed here and going through Elimination Chamber possibly seems like a good alternative if he doesn’t win here.
1 – CM Punk (-300)
Likelihood to Win: Favorite
Since his return to WWE, CM Punk has been gold with every single person he’s been in the ring with. While having Punk be denied here to possibly have to go a more underhanded route to earn his moment in the sun is intriguing, it also seems unnecessary. Punk has the most options with any opponent sounding incredible, and having everyone’s eyes fixed on him feels like the most likely option as the 2024 WWE Royal Rumble winner.
