At this point, the Week 11 college football slate is a shell of its former self. Numerous cancellations and postponements across the country due to the coronavirus have lopped off many games from the original Saturday schedule, and several notable matchups at that. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of lines that offer intriguing betting action, including a matchup of Big Ten Conference heavyweights in primetime. The Big House may be empty this year, but that’s not stopping Wisconsin vs Michigan from being one of our top college football picks of the weekend.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan Game Info
Wisconsin Badgers (1-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Michigan Wolverines (1-2, 0-1 Home)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, MI
Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
Wisconsin vs Michigan College Football Odds
Odds courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook
Opening Lines (Las Vegas Consensus): Michigan -1; O/U 51.5
Moneyline: WIS: (-145) | MICH: (+125)
Spread: WIS: -5 (-115) | MICH: +5 (-105)
Total: 54 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Wisconsin vs Michigan College Football Picks
Aside from the big game feel surrounding this inter-division Big Ten matchup, heavy line movement adds to the intrigue of this week’s game. The current point spread, which favors Wisconsin by five at MyBookie Sportsbook, is a full eight-point move from the Las Vegas lookahead lines of Michigan -3 and a six-point swing from the game week opening line of Michigan -1. The total has also seen back-and-forth movement, dropping rapidly from the opening line of 51.5 before surging upward a day later. The current over/under of 54 is the culmination of a full 4.5-point swing.
Wisconsin Badgers Overview
Saturday night’s game will be the first time we’ve seen Wisconsin in action in a while. After a dominant win over Illinois three weeks ago to open their 2020 season, the Badgers were subject to a two-week hiatus thanks to a rash of COVID-19 positives within the program. The most notable positive to be announced was quarterback Graham Mertz. At the time of writing, Mertz remains in COVID-19 protocol, but there is pretty widespread optimism that he will be available on Saturday night.
It’s hard to understate the talent of Mertz, which was on full display against the Fighting Illini in the opener. The redshirt freshman completed 20-of-21 pass attempts for 248 yards and five touchdowns. Needless to say, Badger fans were pretty excited about the team’s potential after that performance.
Mertz isn’t alone when it comes to the Wisconsin passing attack. Wideouts Danny Davis III and Kendric Pryor form a nice tandem, while tight end Jake Ferguson is one of the most talented receivers at the position in the country. Wisconsin did struggle to run the ball in the opener, something that could be troublesome if Mertz is forced to miss.
Defensively, the Badgers looked stout in holding the Illini to just 218 total yards. They will look to clamp down on Michigan’s talented playmakers and eliminate the big plays. Needless to say, it’s interesting to see a surge of college football expert picks move the total up when Wisconsin’s defense is playing in the game.
Michigan Wolverines Overview
It’s been a rocky start to the 2020 season for Michigan football, to say the least. And that’s without COVID-19 throwing wrenches into their schedule as it has for Wisconsin. After a dominant win over a Minnesota team that doesn’t appear to be nearly as good as many college football picks experts felt coming into the year, the Wolverines have dropped back-to-back games since. After getting embarrassed by rebuilding rival Michigan State at home, Michigan went and lost to Indiana last week. Many are beginning to wonder if the end is near for head coach Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor.
A big component of Michigan’s struggles has been a lack of consistency. Quarterback Joe Milton has flashed plenty of talent and potential, but his accuracy and decision-making have been major causes for concern. Despite over 300 yards passing in both losses, Milton has had poor completion percentages and threw a pair of interceptions against the Hoosiers last week. He hasn’t been helped by his offensive line which has surrendered four sacks in the last two games combined and failed to open lanes for the ground game. An average of 0.72 yards per carry, which was all the Wolverines could muster against Indiana, simply won’t cut it against the Badgers.
The Wolverines’ defense will face a sturdy test if Mertz is cleared to play. Michigan’s secondary is allowing a whopping 287.3 air yards per game. Add in the threat of a rebound performance from the Badgers’ ground game and Michigan could have their hands full trying to get enough stops in this week’s college football picks spotlight game.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Betting Trends
- Wisconsin 2020 Betting Trends: 1-0 ATS; 1-0 to the Over
- Michigan 2020 Betting Trends: 1-2 ATS; 2-1 to the Over
- Wisconsin is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 head-to-head games against Michigan.
- The Over has cashed in Michigan’s last seven games in which they were a home underdog.
- Six of the last eight head-to-head meetings between Wisconsin and Michigan have gone over the total.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Statistics
- Wisconsin has averaged 45.0 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 2 in the Big Ten)
- Wisconsin has surrendered 7.0 PPG this season (No. 1 in the Big Ten)
- Michigan has averaged 31.3 PPG this season (No. 5 in the Big Ten)
- Michigan has surrendered 29.7 PPG this season (No. 7 in the Big Ten)
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