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UTSA vs Troy Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Cure Bowl

The second of two college football bowl games scheduled for Friday is the only bowl matchup between two conference champions. Fresh off of capturing their second straight Conference USA Championship, the UTSA Roadrunners are set to take on the Sun Belt Conference Champion Troy Trojans in the Cure Bowl. In addition to both teams being league champs, contrasting styles of play add to the intrigue of this matchup. The UTSA vs Troy odds and college football betting picks view this game as a virtual toss-up.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official UTSA vs Troy prediction for the Cure Bowl matchup.

UTSA vs Troy Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

UTSA Roadrunners (11-2, 8-0 CUSA) vs. Troy Trojans (11-2, 7-1 SBC)
Date: Friday, December 16, 2022
Time: 3 p.m. EST
Venue: Exploria Stadium — Orlando, FL
Coverage: ESPN

Considering that the UTSA football program only came into existence in 2009, winning back-to-back Conference USA titles is certainly impressive. Quarterback Frank Harris headlined an experienced offense that proved to be just as potent as most anticipated this season. The Roadrunners did not lose a single conference game all season and pulled away in the title game to beat North Texas by three touchdowns. Next on the checklist for the young program is to notch its first bowl win.

The last time Troy lost a game came all the way back in the Sun Belt Conference opener against Appalachian State in mid-September. The Trojans rattled off nine consecutive wins after that four-point defeat to clinch the West Division. Troy then routed Coastal Carolina in the title game to capture its first outright conference championship since 2009. Needless to say, first-year coach Jon Sumrall is already making a mark. Friday’s Cure Bowl marks the Trojans’ first bowl appearance since 2018.

Kimani Vidal UTSA vs Troy prediction odds college football betting picks Cure Bowl game predictions
Credit: Joey Meredith/Troy Athletics

UTSA vs Troy College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for UTSA vs Troy can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: UTSA: (-105) | TROY: (-115)
Point Spread: UTSA: +1 (-110) | TROY: -1 (-110)
Total: 56 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Cure Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
UTSA.18 (51).76 (24)-.31 (82)
Troy.16 (56)-.10 (74).37 (35)
  • Roadrunners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Each of the Roadrunners’ last five non-conference games has gone OVER the total.
  • The OVER is 10-1 in the Roadrunners’ last 11 games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.
  • Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after passing for more than 250 yards in their previous game.
  • The OVER is 8-0 in the Trojans’ last eight bowl games.
  • Trojans are a perfect 5-0 both straight up and ATS in their last five road/neutral site games against Conference USA opponents.

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UTSA vs Troy Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Neither UTSA nor Troy has lost a game outright since September 17th. While the Trojans did suffer the only defeat in conference play of the two teams, there’s no denying that the Sun Belt was a stronger league than Conference USA this season. Based on strength of conference schedules alone, it makes sense why the UTSA vs Troy odds have moved through pick ’em in the Trojans’ favor.

It’s also worth noting that Troy’s defense was one of the best among Group of 5 teams all season long. Prior to the SBC title game which featured plenty of garbage time, the Trojans had held six straight opponents under 20 points. Even against quality nonconference opponents like Ole Miss and Western Kentucky early in the season, the Troy defense held its own.

Not to be outdone, UTSA’s offense ranked 11th nationally in scoring at 37.6 points per game. That being said, UTSA hasn’t faced a defense the caliber of Troy’s all season long, aside from a non-league matchup against Texas. The other cause for concern is the struggles of the Roadrunners’ own defense throughout the year.

Quarterback Gunnar Watson played perhaps his best game of the season in the Sun Belt title game. One has to believe that sophomore wideout Tez Johnson is capable of causing problems for the UTSA secondary. Troy’s rushing attack has really picked up steam over the past month as well. The Roadrunners may struggle to contain Kimani Vidal for a full four quarters, especially if the offense is unable to sustain drives.

TROY COVERS will be our official college football betting UTSA vs Troy prediction for the Cure Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UTSA a 56.3% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Troy -1 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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