The North Carolina Tar Heels and Wagner Seahawks face off in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament. North Carolina was the class of the ACC this season and comes in with a chip on their shoulder after losing to N.C. State in the ACC Tournament championship game. On the other side, Wagner won three straight games as the 6-seed in the NEC Tournament to submit their tournament bid and continued their success with a 71-68 win over Howard in the First Four Tuesday to get the chance to be the third team ever to knock off a top-seed as a 16-seed. Even with Wagner’s momentum, are the Tar Heels a lock in this UNC vs Wagner prediction?
Below, we will preview this NCAA Tournament college basketball game, giving a North Carolina vs Wagner prediction and other March Madness expert picks. Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
UNC vs Wagner Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks
2024 NCAA Tournament
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7) vs. No. 16 Wagner Seahawks (17-15)
Date: Thursday, March 21, 2024
Time: 2:45 PM EST
Venue: Spectrum Center — Charlotte, NC
Coverage: CBS
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UNC vs Wagner March Madness Odds
All college basketball betting odds for North Carolina vs Wagner can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: UNC: (-7173) | WAG: (+2000)
Point Spread: UNC: -25 (-111) | WAG: +25 (-109)
Total: 133.5 — Over: (-108) | Under: (-112)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| North Carolina | 9 | 117.8 (24) | 93.2 (6) | 70.5 (41) |
| Wagner | 289 | 96.1 (332) | 105.9 (172) | 61.4 (361) |
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North Carolina vs Wagner College Basketball Trends
- North Carolina is 10-4 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- Wagner is 10-6 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- The UNDER is 18-16 in North Carolina basketball games this season.
- The UNDER is 19-10 in Wagner basketball games this season.
- North Carolina is 7-3 in NCAA Tournament games since 2019.
- Wagner is 1-1 in NCAA Tournament games in school history.
UNC vs Wagner Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks
This isn’t the same Tar Heels team from years past. This North Carolina basketball team might just have their best defense in recent history as they are ranked sixth in the country even with a tempo still ranking 41st in the nation. On top of their defense, they also have an elite offense ran by RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. The two are likely the best duo in this region, and possibly the entire tournament, as they averaged 35.5 points, 14 rebounds, and five assists per game this season. Although the Tar Heels do have seven losses this season, four of those came to tournament teams with the other three all coming either on the road or in overtime at a neutral site.
Wagner is one of the more interesting teams in recent NCAA Tournament history thanks to their incredible lack of depth. Due to a variety of factors, the Seahawks have just a seven-man rotation. Wagner has been so short-handed for so long, they haven’t held contact practices since 2023. While that does show the resiliency of this team, they have been seen to fizzle out down the stretch which was seen in the 14-2 run they allowed to Howard in their First Four game that nearly cost them the game.
Wagner is a great story, and they deserve all the credit in the world for getting here. With that in mind, they have no shot here. Not only is North Carolina elite on both sides of the ball, but Wagner clearly needs to jump out to a big lead for when the fatigue kicks in as the game comes down to the wire. Even if they’re able to slow this game down to their tempo, it’s hard to see them building a big enough lead, if any, that the Tar Heels can’t come back from. This game should be an old-fashioned blowout. For our UNC vs Wagner prediction, we are picking the North Carolina Tar Heels to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
