Could the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff chances be doomed following the TJ Watt injury? We take a closer look…
With a month left of the NFL regular season, the race for the top spot in the AFC North is as hot as ever. The Pittsburgh Steelers hold the top spot while the Baltimore Ravens are right on their tail. A Week 18 matchup could decide the winner. The Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes aren’t dead either, though they are on life support. And the Cleveland Browns? Well… they may be without their entire starting offensive line this weekend. Good luck, Shedeur Sanders. I’m sure we won’t judge you harshly if you suck.
While the Steelers are in the driver’s seat in the division, they received a kick in the nuts on Friday that is a vibe killer to be sure. A TJ Watt injury will keep him out this week. That’s not great news. However, many outlets seem to think this is a one-week absence for Watt, or at least they are reporting it that way. Let’s take a closer look at this.
TJ Watt Injury Could Cost the Steelers’ Playoff Chances
Earlier in the week, we found out that there was a TJ Watt injury. He was at the hospital undergoing tests on his lungs. However, after a dry needling treatment, he suffered a partially collapsed lung. He needed surgery on this partially collapsed lung, which will keep him out of the Steelers’ Week 15 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
A chest tube is needed to re-expand the lung. According to Inside Injuries, at least 2 to 4 weeks are needed to make sure that there is no underlying bleeding and that the lung expands fully.
While we know the TJ Watt injury will keep him out of Week 15 against the Miami Dolphins, he should be expected to miss further time. The good news is that Pittsburgh has back-to-back non-divisional games against the Dolphins and the Detroit Lions. Following those two games, the Steelers face the Cleveland Browns. While Watt could return for that game, let’s be honest, his services may not be needed.
Missing these three games would give him plenty of time to heal and get his body ready for what could be the featured game of the final week of the NFL season — Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will travel to Pittsburgh, and the winner very easily could win the AFC North while the loser misses the playoffs entirely. Of course, the Steelers will have to win some games without Watt before then…
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record Without TJ Watt
There may not be a player whose presence is missed more than TJ Watt, statistically. During his nine-year career, Watt has missed just 11 games. However, his absence was felt, as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ record without Watt is not good. In fact, it’s terrible.
The Steelers have a 1-10 record without TJ Watt in their lineup. Their lone win came in 2022, barely beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-18. If you can believe it, the ragtag combo of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky beat Tom Brady. The Steelers will need more efforts like this one if they are to make the playoffs following the TJ Watt injury.
Steelers Playoff Chances
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff chances are on the fence. Right now, they have a 70% chance to make the playoffs, per The Athletic NFL Playoff Simulator. They have -170 odds to make the playoffs, meaning a $17 bet on BetUS Sportsbook would win $10. If you’re feeling pessimistic, the Steelers’ playoff odds to miss are +140.
If Pittsburgh beats Miami on Monday Night Football, the Steelers playoff chances rise to 76%. Still, this is shaping up for everything coming down to the final week of the season, assuming Baltimore picks up some wins along the way.
Even if the Steelers lose to both the Dolphins and the Browns, a win over the Ravens in Week 18 would give them a 90% chance to make the playoffs, and that’s because a win over the Browns as well would put them in. Simply put, if Pittsburgh wins its divisional games, nothing else matters.
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AFC Playoff Standings | NFL Playoff Picture
It’s the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots atop the NFL Playoff Picture in the AFC. The other two divisions are a bit more up in the air; the Jacksonville Jaguars currently have hold of the AFC South, at 9-5. However, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both a game behind (8-5). It is a similar situation in the AFC North with the Steelers (7-6), who have a narrow lead over the Baltimore Ravens (6-7). Notably, these two play in Week 18, and the TJ Watt injury should allow him to return by then.
As for the AFC Wild Card race, it’s the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills at 9-4, then the Texans are at 8-5. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the outside looking in. They have a big matchup against the Chargers this week. Remember, the top seven teams in the AFC Playoff standings are in, and winning the division rewards the team with a top-four seed.
- Denver Broncos (11-2)
- New England Patriots (11-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
- Buffalo Bills (9-4)
- Houston Texans (8-5)
Others in Wild Card Race
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
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