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Tennessee vs Clemson Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Orange Bowl

A busy Friday of college football will conclude with the first of the New Year’s Six bowl games. From the trophy to the sidelines and even the stands, the color orange will be everywhere inside Hard Rock Stadium as the Tennessee Volunteers battle the Clemson Tigers in the Orange Bowl. Both teams will be looking to punctuate very successful campaigns with a victory in one of college football’s most prestigious bowl games. The Tennessee vs Clemson odds and college football betting picks view the ACC representative as a moderate favorite ahead of this matchup.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Ohio vs Wyoming prediction for the Orange Bowl matchup.

Tennessee vs Clemson Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Orange Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) vs. Clemson Tigers (11-2, 8-0 ACC)
Date: Friday, December 30, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
Coverage: ESPN

Despite losing to defending national champion Georgia, Tennessee’s hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff were still very much alive as recently as five weeks ago. A shocking loss to South Carolina in the penultimate game of the regular season ultimately derailed those hopes. Star quarterback Hendon Hooker was also lost on the field in Columbia to a knee injury. Nonetheless, the Volunteers were able to overwhelm in-state rival Vanderbilt and clinch a New Year’s Six Bowl invite.

Clemson also came up short of returning to the CFP despite running the table in league play. Despite several close calls against teams like Wake Forest, Florida State and Syracuse, the Tigers overcame all-comers in conference play to win the ACC Atlantic Division. The Tigers’ only losses came against Notre Dame and against South Carolina in the regular-season finale. Dabo Swinney’s team bounced back from the latter defeat to score a dominant win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Dabo Swinney Tennessee vs Clemson prediction odds college football betting picks Orange Bowl game predictions
Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tennessee vs Clemson College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Tennessee vs Clemson can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: TENN: (+175) | CLEM: (-205)
Point Spread: TENN: +5 (-110) | CLEM: -5 (-110)
Total: 61 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Orange Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Tennessee1.19 (4)1.89 (1).30 (37)
Clemson.57 (19).33 (44).79 (12)
  • Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
  • Six of the Volunteers’ last seven bowl games have gone OVER the total.
  • The UNDER is 7-0 in the Volunteers’ last seven games after allowing fewer than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 10-0 ATS in their last ten games played in the month of December.
  • Each of the Tigers’ last seven bowl games played in the month of December has stayed UNDER the total.
  • The OVER is 4-0 in the Tigers’ last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Last Tennessee vs Clemson head-to-head meeting came back in the 2002 Peach Bowl with the Tigers winning outright as five-point betting underdogs.

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Tennessee vs Clemson Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

There’s no denying that the Tennessee passing attack will be a shell of itself in the Orange Bowl. Along with losing quarterback Hendon Hooker to a season-ending injury, the Volunteers will also be without their top two receivers in Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman. Both players have opted out of this game to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Although there are multiple voids that must be filled, Tennessee showed it still has some potency on offense. Joe Milton will be under center for the Vols on Friday night. While the former Michigan Wolverine struggles with accuracy, his arm strength and ability to push the ball downfield could cause problems for a middling Clemson defensive secondary.

It’s also worth noting that Tennessee played several games without Tillman this year due to injury. What’s more, coach Josh Heupel has had several weeks to prepare a game plan that is tailored to the personnel that will be on the field in the bowl game. This will likely include an increased reliance on the ground game with tailback Jabari Small being the featured ball carrier. It will be interesting to see whether a greater dose of run plays affects the Vols’ up-tempo offensive style.

Some may assume that Tennessee’s attempts to run the ball will be in vain as Clemson allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (99.0) defensively. However, the Tigers will be without two pro prospects on defense. The absence of Myles Murphy and Trenton Simpson could prove to be an issue for Clemson against a Volunteers offensive line that is expected to be fully intact.

An additional point to consider when making Orange Bowl college football betting picks is the relative obscurity of Clemson quarterback, Cade Klubnik. Sure, he was a highly-touted recruit and played well in the ACC title game after taking over for DJ Uiagalelei. However, that was against an awful North Carolina defense that made countless offenses look like world-beaters this year. As such, laying north of a field goal with a freshman QB against a formidable SEC opponent remains a daunting proposition.

TENNESSEE COVERS will be our official college football betting Tennessee vs Clemson prediction for the Orange Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a 57.2% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Tennessee +5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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