After a pair of epic College Football Playoff Semifinals on New Year’s Eve, the stage is set for what figures to be an incredible CFP National Championship. The 3-seed TCU Horned Frogs overcame the odds once again to upset Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to earn a spot in the title game. Lining up opposite them on Monday night will be the 1-seed Georgia Bulldogs who earned the right to defend their title from a year ago with a thrilling victory over Ohio State in the Peach Bowl. The TCU vs Georgia odds and college football betting picks have declared the defending champs as decisive favorites.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official TCU vs Georgia prediction for the CFP National Championship.
TCU vs Georgia Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
CFP National Championship
TCU Horned Frogs (13-1, 9-0 Big 12) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (14-0, 8-0 SEC)
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, CA
TCU Horned Frogs Preview
Head coach Sonny Dykes’ first season at TCU has been one for the ages. Despite receiving countless scares and having to pull off miraculous comebacks to win games against Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Horned Frogs managed to find a way to go 12-0 during the regular season. Despite losing in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, TCU still earned the 3-seed in the final CFP Rankings to secure the program’s first trip to the College Football Playoff.
The Fiesta Bowl simply became the latest chapter in what has been a magical season for TCU. The Horned Frogs capitalized on a bevy of Michigan miscues early on and successfully thwarted each of the Wolverines’ comeback attempts to score the upset. After starting the year with 200-1 odds to win the CFP National Championship, TCU is now just one win away from doing so.
Georgia Bulldogs Preview
For the second year in a row, Georgia finished the regular season undefeated. The Bulldogs were then able to avenge last year’s loss in the SEC Championship Game and lock up the 1-seed in the final CFP Rankings with a dominant victory over LSU. The Dawgs have largely steamrolled their competition to date with 12 of their 13 wins coming by double-digits. That kind of dominance is almost unheard of for a team playing in a conference as tough as the SEC and proves just how tough Kirby Smart’s team is.
Georgia got all it could handle and then some from Ohio State in its College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl. Quarterback Stetson Bennett struggled at times but was able to find AD Mitchell for the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. The Bulldogs will now look to become only the second team since the start of the BCS era to win back-to-back national championships.
TCU vs Georgia College Football Betting Picks and Odds
Moneyline: TCU: (+375) | UGA: (-465)
Point Spread: TCU: +13 (-110) | UGA: -13 (-110)
Total: 63.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this CFP National Championship matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
|Team||Overall FEI (Rk)||OFEI (Rk)||DFEI (Rk)|
|TCU||.89 (7)||1.14 (12)||.66 (19)|
|Georgia||1.46 (1)||1.72 (4)||1.36 (1)|
TCU vs Georgia College Football Betting Trends
- Horned Frogs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
- The UNDER is 5-0 in the Horned Frogs’ last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Spanning the last five years, 14 of the Horned Frogs’ 16 games against opponents with a .800 winning percentage or better have gone OVER the total.
- Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
- Four of the Bulldogs’ last five games have gone OVER the total.
- Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against non-conference Power 5 opponents.
- Bulldogs are 7-3 straight up and 6-4 ATS in their last ten games against Big 12 Conference opponents.
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TCU vs Georgia Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
As expected, Georgia’s defensive secondary struggled mightily against an Ohio State receiving corps that is one of the best in the country. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, TCU also has its own group of talented and athletic wideouts. Thus, even if the Horned Frogs fail to get much going on the ground with Kendre Miller at less than 100%, they still figure to be capable of moving the ball through the air.
Leading receiver and likely First Round NFL Draft pick Quentin Johnston showed just how dangerous he is in the Fiesta Bowl win over Michigan. Fellow wideouts Taye Barber, Jordan Hudson and Darius Davis are also capable of challenging the UGA secondary. The key for TCU will be giving Max Duggan enough time in the pocket to throw with accuracy, something that he has struggled with at times this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Horned Frogs’ defensive performance in the Fiesta Bowl didn’t exactly inspire much confidence that they will be able to slow down Georgia. Unlike Michigan, the Bulldogs have a proven passing attack to complement their bruising ground game.
The first challenge will be trying to slow down Kenny McIntosh and the rest of Georgia’s RB rotation. Given how lackluster TCU’s defense has been at stopping the run this season (156.8 yards allowed per game), one has to assume that the Horned Frogs will stack the box with extra defenders. This will only help open things up down the field for Stetson Bennett and his pass-catchers.
Tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington could prove to be matchup nightmares for a TCU defense that will be at a distinct size disadvantage in this game. The chances of the Frogs containing them as well as speedy wideouts AD Mitchell, Ladd McConkey and Arian Smith are slim.
The combination of all of the Dawgs’ weapons and a belief that TCU’s receivers can win some matchups down the field is enough to play the Over. Risk-averse bettors may also wish to consider laying some extra juice on alternate game total lines in order to obtain a few extra points of insurance.
OVER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting TCU vs Georgia prediction for the CFP National Championship.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Georgia a 72.9% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: OVER 63.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)