Sunday’s NFL Wild Card Playoffs tripleheader concludes with an AFC matchup featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The conference’s respective 7 and 2-seeds did face off during the regular season, a game that the Chiefs won easily. The Steelers will aim to flip the script on Sunday night and extend the playing career of their Hall of Fame quarterback. However, the NFL betting odds are predicting more of the same script when it comes to picks against the spread. The home team is currently laying a massive number ahead of this Steelers vs Chiefs AFC Wild Card showdown.
The following Steelers vs Chiefs NFL betting preview will provide you with the current odds, betting trends and picks for the AFC Wild Card matchup, along with a stream link to watch games all postseason long.
Steelers vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Betting Preview
NFL Postseason — AFC Wild Card Game
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1, 3-5 Away) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, 7-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 16, 2021
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
Coverage: Click here for the stream
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
The Steelers snuck into the postseason in a fashion that quite literally went against all odds. Who could have imagined that a tie against the Detroit Lions would prove so impactful in the final AFC standings? Head coach Mike Tomlin deserves a world of credit for yet again exceeding expectations with a marginally-talented roster at best. The Steelers’ biggest star is probably pass-rusher T.J. Watt. He managed to tie the all-time single-season sack record in last week’s win over the Baltimore Ravens. For all those NFL betting pundits who blame the newly-expanded schedule, let it be known that Watt actually played one fewer game due to injuries than his co-record holder, Michael Strahan.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, the defense is average at best aside from Watt. Pittsburgh had a particularly tough time stopping the run this season. They finished the year ranked 27th in adjusted run defensive efficiency. Running the ball on offense was also a challenge in the vast majority of games. In fact, rookie running back Najee Harris accumulated the majority of his numbers as a receiver out of the backfield. Given the Steelers’ awful offensive line play, veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger has had no choice but to get the ball out quick in the passing game. Along with Harris, Diontae Johnson and rookie TE Pat Freiermuth have been the other two most consistent targets.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
If their first meeting against the Steelers was any indication, the Chiefs should have little trouble in covering the NFL betting picks against the spread in Sunday’s Wild Card game. Kansas City blasted Pittsburgh 36-10 back in Week 16. The Chiefs will again have the raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd behind them for the rematch. Despite winning nine of their final ten games to close the regular season, the two-time AFC champs still fell short of the 1-seed by virtue of a head-to-head loss to the Tennessee Titans. Playing on Wild Card Weekend is unfamiliar territory for the Chiefs going off of recent years.
After enduring surprising struggles during the first half of the season, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense got things rolling down the stretch. Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise that K.C.’s NFL betting success correlated directly with Mahomes taking better care of the football. After throwing 10 interceptions in the first half of the year, the 26-year-old had only three over the Chiefs’ final nine games. Although top pass-catchers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are both banged up, they are each expected to play on Sunday night. While lead RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will have to miss this AFC Wild Card matchup with a shoulder injury, Darrel Williams has filled in nicely for his fellow LSU alum on prior occasions this season.
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Steelers vs Chiefs Betting Odds and NFL Picks Against the Spread
Moneyline: PIT: (+500) | KC: (-700)
Spread: PIT: +12.5 (-110) | KC: -12.5 (-110)
Total: 46.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting via Action Network: PIT: (47%) | KC: (53%)
Steelers vs Chiefs NFL Betting Trends
- Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after playing in an overtime game in their previous matchup.
- Four of the Steelers’ last five road games have gone over the total.
- Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
- Each of the Chiefs’ last five games has gone over the total.
- Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven head-to-head matchups against the Steelers at home.
Steelers vs Chiefs Stats
- Pittsburgh is averaging 20.2 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 21 in the NFL).
- Pittsburgh is surrendering 23.4 PPG this season (No. 20 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 28.2 PPG this season (No. 4 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 21.4 PPG this season (No. 8 in the NFL).
Steelers vs Chiefs Prediction
This Steelers vs Chiefs NFL betting prediction uses NumberFire’s game projections. They give Kansas City an 82.0% chance to win this AFC Wild Card matchup.