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Saint Mary’s vs VCU Prediction and NCAA Tournament March Madness Expert Picks

In a First Round NCAA Tournament game, the 5-seed Saint Mary’s Gaels will face off with the 12-seed VCU Rams in the West Region. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting odds, March Madness expert picks, betting trends and KenPom Rankings, then share our official Saint Mary’s vs VCU prediction for the First Round matchup. 

Saint Mary’s vs VCU Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks

2023 NCAA Tournament First Round
No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) vs. No. 12 VCU Rams (27-7)
Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
Time: 2 PM EST
Venue: MVP Arena — Albany, NY
Coverage: TBS

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Saint Mary’s vs VCU March Madness Betting Odds

All college basketball betting odds for Saint Mary’s vs VCU can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.

Moneyline: SMC: (-190) | VCU: (+163)
Point Spread: SMC: -4 (-110) | VCU: +4 (-110)
Total: 123 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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KenPom Rankings | Bracketology

KenPom Rankings are from

TeamOverall AdjEM (Rk)AdjO (Rk)AdjD (Rk)AdjT (Rk)
Saint Mary’s+21.90 (11)113.5 (40)91.6 (9)61.7 (359)
VCU+13.15 (58)107.2 (140)94.0 (17)68.0 (147)
  • Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
  • Eight of the Gaels’ last 11 neutral site games have gone OVER the total.
  • Gaels are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
  • Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
  • Ten of the Rams’ last 14 games overall have gone UNDER the total.
  • Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

Saint Mary’s vs VCU Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks and Bracketology

We have a major trendy underdog alert in this 5-12 matchup! In addition to being a popular upset pick in March Madness brackets, VCU has received plenty of action at the betting window. At the time of writing, 73% of all ATS bets like the Rams to cover in their First Round matchup against Saint Mary’s. What’s more, the Atlantic 10 Tournament champs have also taken a 60% majority of moneyline wagers.

Of course, the NCAA Tournament is known for producing upsets. That said, the trendy underdogs tend to be ones to stay away from, even in March Madness. There are two primary reasons why VCU is so popular in this spot. One is the Rams’ history of making Cinderella runs in the tournament. The other is the fact that Saint Mary’s got blown out in the WCC Tournament title game by Gonzaga. However, that game was hardly a true reflection of the Gaels’ total body of work this year.

All season long, Saint Mary’s has been held in high regard by the KenPom rankings and other advanced metrics. The Gaels struggled mightily when facing full-court pressure in the WCC Tournament, so there’s no doubt that VCU will try to implement a similar strategy and speed things up. The longer Saint Mary’s takes to get the ball across halfcourt, the less time the Rams will need to spend defending pick-and-roll action.

That being said, Bennett is too smart a coach to not have his team better prepared to break the press after the struggles in Las Vegas. With a veteran group and a true clutch player in Aidan Mahaney, look for the Gaels to stick it to the betting public in Friday’s matchup.

Our official college basketball betting Saint Mary’s vs VCU prediction will be SAINT MARY’S COVERS at BetUS

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Saint Mary’s a 63.8% chance to win.

Bet: Saint Mary’s -4 (-110 at BetUS Sportsbook)

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