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Patriots vs Bills NFL Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks Against the Spread for Wild Card Weekend

The second of six NFL Playoffs matchups on Super Wild Card Weekend features the third meeting in the last two months between a pair of AFC East Division rivals. The stakes couldn’t be much higher for Saturday night’s clash between the New England and Buffalo Bills. After splitting their two regular-season meetings, this primetime Wild Card game sets up as the ultimate grudge match. When it comes to NFL picks against the spread, the betting odds favor the home team by a surprisingly large margin for this Patriots vs Bills showdown.

The following Patriots vs Bills NFL betting preview will provide you with the current odds, betting trends and picks for the AFC Wild Card matchup, along with a stream link to watch games all postseason long.

Stefon Diggs NFL betting picks against the spread trends Patriots vs Bills prediction
Credit: AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Patriots vs Bills NFL Playoffs Betting Preview

NFL Postseason — AFC Wild Card Game
New England Patriots (10-7, 6-2 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 6-3 Home)
Date: Saturday, Jan. 15, 2021
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
Coverage: Click here for the stream

New England Patriots Preview

The Patriots fizzled out in a big way down the stretch of the regular season. The high point of the season for New England was knocking off the same Bills team that they will face in Saturday night’s Wild Card matchup. That win came in front of a national viewing audience and featured a whopping three pass attempts for the Patriots’ offense. After a bye the following week, Bill Belichick’s team closed with losses in three of their final four games. With a seven-game winning streak now a distant memory, much of the NFL betting public has since abandoned the Patriots as a preferred pick against the spread.

All of that being said, the Patriots still figure to be a tough out in the NFL Playoffs for however long they extend their stay. In Belichick, New England has a defensive mastermind of a coach who is bound to draw up some new looks to flummox opposing offenses. The Pats finished the regular season with the No. 4 adjusted defense overall and were No. 3 against the pass. A pair of free-agent signings have made a world of difference. Pass-rusher Matthew Judon was among the NFL sack leaders while safety Adrian Phillips anchored a lethal secondary. On offense, bettors should expect a heavy dose of running back Damien Harris in Saturday’s NFL betting matchup. The Patriots will also aim to put rookie QB, Mac Jones, in situations where he can be successful as he makes his first career postseason start.

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills grabbed the top spot in the AFC East Division when they exacted revenge on the Patriots in Week 16. An easy schedule the rest of the way allowed Buffalo to capture a second consecutive division title. Unfortunately, the only reward for Sean McDermott’s team is home-field for Saturday’s NFL betting trilogy matchup with New England. While temperatures are expected to be hovering around 0℉ in Western New York on Saturday night, heavy winds are not currently in the forecast. That is good news for the Bills’ pass-happy offensive attack.

Thanks to heavy winds in the first home game against the Patriots, quarterback Josh Allen was fairly limited. He rebounded by playing a phenomenal second game in Foxborough. In addition to a crisp, mistake-free game throwing the ball, Allen was also the Bills’ top rushing option in the win. Although Buffalo was able to spark a more conventional ground game that flowed through Devin Singletary down the stretch of the regular season, the offensive line figures to be in for a much tougher test against the Pats’ defensive front. It will be up to Allen to avoid his tendency to make mistakes if the Bills are to cover the NFL betting picks against the spread. Assuming New England focuses on taking away top wideout Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley could play pivotal roles.

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Patriots vs Bills Betting Odds and NFL Picks Against the Spread

NFL betting odds for Patriots vs Bills are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: NE: (+185) | BUF: (-225)
NE: +5 (-115) | BUF: -5 (-105)
43.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting
via Action Network: NE: (44%) | BUF: (56%)

Patriots vs Bills NFL Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 8-3 both straight up and ATS in their last 11 games.
  • Nine of the Patriots’ last 13 games have gone over the total.
  • Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC East Division opponents.
  • Bills are only 1-9 straight up in their last 10 head-to-head matchups against the Patriots at home. 
  • Since 2004, Patriots are 15-3 ATS (7-1 in the last eight) in head-to-head matchups against the Bills on the road.

Patriots vs Bills Stats

  • New England is averaging 27.2 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 6 in the NFL).
  • New England is surrendering 17.8 PPG this season (No. 2 in the NFL).
  • Buffalo is averaging 28.4 PPG this season (No. 3 in the NFL).
  • Buffalo is surrendering 17.0 PPG this season (No. 1 in the NFL).

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

This Patriots vs Bills NFL betting prediction uses NumberFire’s game projections. They give Buffalo a 70.8% chance to win this AFC Wild Card matchup.

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