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Padres vs Mets Prediction, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Game 1

The MLB Playoffs kick off today with a four-game slate. The fourth and final game pits the San Diego Padres against the New York Mets. This Padres vs Mets series is shaping up to be a fun one. The Padres finally get back to the playoffs after last season’s late collapse while the New York Mets will try to regain composure after losing the NL East division to the Atlanta Braves at the very end.

This MLB betting preview for the NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Padres vs Mets Game 1 includes game info, starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for tonight’s postseason matchup.

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Prediction | NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Game 1

NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Game 1
San Diego Padres (89-73, 45-36 Away) vs. New York Mets (101-61, 54-27 Home)
Date: Friday, Oct. 7, 2021
Time: 8:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field — Queens, NY
Coverage: ESPN

Padres vs Mets Starting Pitchers

PadresYu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA)
MetsMax Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA)

San Diego Padres Preview

For the second straight season, the midseason trades for the Padres have all failed spectacularly. Juan Soto is batting .236 while Josh Bell finished the season below the Mendoza Line. Josh Hader at one time had an ERA over 20 and has blown multiple saves in less than half of a baseball season. With all going wrong for the Padres, they still find themselves in the playoffs. With Fernando Tatis Jr. out indefinitely due to a wrist injury sustained in a motorcycle accident, the Padres will again be heavily relying on the bat of Manny Machado.

The pitching staff is led by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who have combined for a 26-15 record along with producing 46 quality starts. Outside of those two, however, only three players have more than five wins. The role of closer is also a massive question mark as Josh Hader currently has an ERA of 7.31 in 19 games. Against a team like the Mets, who have arguably the deepest lineup in baseball, the bullpen of San Diego will for sure decide who wins this series.

New York Mets Preview

The Mets have been one of the most consistent teams in the MLB this year and have won 101 games. In a cruel twist of fate, however, the Mets find themselves in the Wild Card MLB Playoffs rounds as they were overtaken by the Atlanta Braves at the very end. The Mets have not only Jeff McNeil, who led the National League in batting average at .326, but they also have Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor who both batted in over 100 runs. This team is deep and gets even scarier if Starling Marte is able to come back later on in the playoffs should they win this series.

The pitching staff has historically been a problem for the Mets. However, it has arguably been the biggest strength of the Mets this year. Carlos Carrasco and Chris Bassitt have both won 15 games while Jacob DeGrom and Max Scherzer are coming back or have recently come back from injuries. Add in closer Edwin Diaz who has 32 saves along with an ERA of just 1.31, and this team has virtually no flaws. The Mets are clearly the better team but will they choke when it matters again?

Padres vs Mets Prediction, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Game 1
Credit: Jim Rassol/USA TODAY Sports

Padres vs Mets Odds | MLB Playoffs Predictions

MLB betting odds for Padres vs Mets are taken from BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: SD: (+126) | NYM: (-150)
Run Line: 
SD: +1.5 (-195) | NYM: -1.5 (+165)
6 — Over: (-120) | Under: (EVEN)
Public (Spread) Betting 
via Action NetworkSD: (35%) | NYM: (65%)

Padres vs Mets MLB Betting Trends

  • San Diego is 4-1 straight up in their last five games against New York.
  • San Diego is 5-1 straight up in their last six road games.
  • The total has gone under in five of New York’s last seven home games against San Diego.
  • New York is 8-1 straight up in their last nine home games.
  • The total has gone over in nine of the Mets’ last 11 games.

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Padres vs Mets Stats

  • San Diego is averaging 4.35 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 13 in the MLB).
  • San Diego is surrendering 4.07 RPG this season (No. 10 in the MLB).
  • New York is averaging 4.77 RPG this season (No. 5 in the MLB).
  • New York is surrendering 3.74 RPG this season (No. 4 in the MLB).

Padres vs Mets MLB Weather Report

Status: Partly Cloudy
13 MPH (blowing out to right)

Padres vs Mets Prediction | NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs Game 1

The Padres vs Mets prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give New York a 56.3% chance to win Game 1 of this NL Wild Card MLB Playoffs matchup.

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