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Oregon vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Holiday Bowl

For the first time ever, Petco Park is set to host a college football bowl game. The home stadium of the MLB’s San Diego Padres will be the site of Wednesday night’s Holiday Bowl matchup between the Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels. Both teams are in a position to reach double-digit wins for the season with a victory. Despite the identical win totals, the Oregon vs North Carolina odds and college football betting picks are heavily favoring the Pac-12 representative.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Oregon vs North Carolina prediction for the Holiday Bowl matchup.

Oregon vs North Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Holiday Bowl
Oregon Ducks (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4, 6-2 ACC)
Date: Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park — San Diego, CA
Coverage: FOX

Overall, it was a successful first season at Oregon for head coach Dan Lanning. That said, the Ducks and their fanbase have to be left wondering what might have been if not for a pair of squandered leads in two of their final three games. The first of those two costly losses came at home to Washington and effectively ended Oregon’s College Football Playoff hopes. The second came in the regular-season finale against rival Oregon State. As a result, the Ducks failed to even make the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Much like its Holiday Bowl opponent, North Carolina also sputtered late in the regular season. The Tar Heels were victorious in nine of their first ten games to begin the year with the only loss coming to Notre Dame. However, it has now been over a month since UNC last won a game. A surprising home defeat against Georgia Tech was followed by a loss to rival NC State. Mack Brown’s team still hung on to win the ACC Coastal Division but got pummeled in the conference championship game by Clemson.

Drake Maye Oregon vs North Carolina prediction odds college football betting picks Holiday Bowl game predictions
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon vs North Carolina College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Oregon vs North Carolina can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: ORE: (-550) | UNC: (+430)
Point Spread: ORE: -14 (-112) | UNC: +14 (-108)
Total: 75.5 — Over: (-108) | Under: (-112)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Holiday Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Oregon.69 (13)1.48 (6).11 (52)
North Carolina.06 (63).93 (21)-.80 (117)
  • Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
  • Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on grass.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Tar Heels’ last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Four of the Tar Heels’ last five bowl games have gone OVER the total.
  • Tar Heels are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Pac-12 Conference opponents.

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Oregon vs North Carolina Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Oregon comes into this game as one of the biggest betting favorites of the College Football Bowl Season. The power rating between these two teams is clearly lopsided. It’s hard to blame bettors for questioning whether or not the Ducks should be laying two touchdowns especially given some of the personnel losses that they must contend with.

Fortunately for Oregon, what was one of the best offenses in all of college football remains mostly intact. Quarterback Bo Nix has already announced that he will return for another season in Eugene. Naturally, this means that he will also play in the Holiday Bowl.

With Nix at the controls, the Ducks finished 11th in scoring offense (36.9 points per game), 16th in average passing yards (287.0) and 14th in rushing (212.0). The backfield tandem of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington combined for 1,660 yards on the ground. Both players finished among the top ten in rushing in the Pac-12 Conference.

When it comes to covering the 14-point spread, however, one has to factor in the potency of North Carolina’s offense as well. Quarterback Drake Maye was spectacular for the Tar Heels all season long on his way to earning ACC Freshman of the Year honors. UNC was seventh in the country in passing yards per game (319.2). Although leading receiver Josh Downs has opted out to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft, Maye should still be able to find success against the porous Oregon pass defense.

With the Oregon vs North Carolina odds listing the game total in the mid-70s, it’s clear that a shootout is expected. Statistically speaking, this expectation certainly makes sense. The Ducks will also be without a pair of future NFL draftees on defense in cornerback Christian Gonzalez and linebacker Noah Sewell.

All of that being said, it’s impossible to recommend playing the Over with the line having moved five full points. Instead, bettors are advised to buy back in the opposite direction, especially considering how the Tar Heels’ offense faltered late in the year.

UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting Oregon vs North Carolina prediction for the Holiday Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Oregon a 69.5% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: UNDER 75.5 (-112 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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