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North Texas vs Boise State Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Frisco Bowl

The first Saturday of the 2022 College Football Bowl Season will conclude with a clash between a pair of conference runner-ups. After falling short in their respective conference title games, the North Texas Mean Green and the Boise State Broncos are set to face off in the Frisco Bowl. The contrast in styles of the two teams makes the matchup even more compelling. The North Texas vs Boise State odds and college football betting picks are heavily in favor of the Mountain West Conference representative.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official North Texas vs Boise State prediction for the Frisco Bowl matchup.

North Texas vs Boise State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Frisco Bowl
Boise State Broncos (9-4, 8-0 MWC) vs. North Texas Mean Green (7-6, 6-2 CUSA)
Date: Saturday, December 17, 2022
Time: 9:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Toyota Stadium — Frisco, TX
Coverage: ESPN

North Texas had minimal success against FBS-level opponents in the nonconference portion of the schedule. Losses to SMU, UNLV and Memphis early in the season saw UNT allow 48, 58 and 44 points, respectively. Things went better in league play though. The Mean Green won three of their final four games to qualify for the Conference USA title game but could not keep pace with UTSA’s potent offense for a full 60 minutes and took the loss. Head coach Seth Littrell was fired following the game.

Boise State also got off to a slow start before finding its groove in conference play. Few could’ve envisioned the BSU rattling off a perfect 8-0 Mountain West record after a brutal nonconference loss to UTEP. Coach Andy Avalos converted many critics into believers with the way he rallied the team and earned MWC Coach of the Year honors for his efforts. The Broncos’ loss to Fresno State in the conference title game was just their second defeat in their last nine games overall.

George Holani North Texas vs Boise State prediction odds college football betting picks Frisco Bowl game predictions
Credit: Boise State University Athletics

North Texas vs Boise State College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for North Texas vs Boise State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: UNT: (+305) | BSU: (-375)
Point Spread: UNT: +10.5 (-112) | BSU: -10.5 (-108)
Total: 59.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Frisco Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
North Texas-.29 (87).08 (59)-.68 (112)
Boise State.12 (58).03 (62).27 (39)
  • Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the Mean Green’s last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Mean Green are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played in the month of December.
  • Broncos are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss.
  • Five of the Broncos’ last six non-conference games have stayed UNDER the total.
  • Eight of the Broncos’ last ten games played in the month of December have gone UNDER the total.
  • Mean Green are 1-6 both straight up and ATS in their last seven matchups against Mountain West Conference opponents.

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North Texas vs Boise State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

North Texas had a solid season in Conference USA, but the Mean Green had minimal success against FBS-level opponents in the nonconference portion of the schedule. Losses to SMU, UNLV and Memphis early in the season saw UNT allow 48, 58 and 44 points, respectively. Those outcomes proved to foreshadow a poor season as a whole for the North Texas defense.

The Mean Green finished the regular season ranked 112th out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. That ranking is the fifth-worst of the 82 teams playing in bowl games. An average of 31.8 points allowed per game ranked 108th in the country. Perhaps some of these poor numbers are why head coach Seth Littrell was fired after the C-USA title game.

To pull an upset, North Texas will have to find a way to stop the run better than it did for most of the season. Boise State’s offense relies heavily on the rushing attack that is led by George Holani and dual-threat QB, Taylen Green. Given that UNT allowed 186.0 rushing yards per game, one has to believe that the Broncos will have their way in this matchup.

On offense, the Mean Green will have to contend with a veteran BSU defense that figures to have a size and physicality advantage in the trenches. Thus, even if playmakers like wideout Jyaire Shorter are able to win their matchups, it’s hardly guaranteed that QB Austin Aune will have time in the pocket. His propensity to make poor decisions with the football could also doom North Texas in a matchup where the margin for error will be slim to none.

It’s also worth noting that North Texas has struggled mightily in postseason play. The Mean Green come in having lost their last five bowl games as a program. Each of the four most recent defeats has come by 13+ points.

BOISE STATE COVERS will be our official college football betting North Texas vs Boise State prediction for the Frisco Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Boise State a 61.5% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Boise State -10.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)


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