As we hit the final quarter stretch of the 2018 NFL regular season, most teams still have much to play for and are either trying to develop their young talent or keep their playoff hopes alive.
In Week 14, the main DraftKings slate features 13 games. In order to help navigate your roster options, I’ll provide some data points for two or three players at each position that have the potential to return value over their salary implied totals.
Before reviewing some of the possible roster options for this weekend, just a couple of quick notes beforehand.
All data and statistics included in this article are provided courtesy of FantasyData.com. All points allowed, points scored, and pricing is based on DraftKings (DK) data. In addition, all positional rankings and rankings for points allowed to each position is based on a points per game basis.
With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy-relevant quarterbacks on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson, $5900 (QB11)
Texans vs Colts – Game Total 50.5 (HOU -4.5)
The Houston Texans are currently riding a nine-game winning streak and are set to take on the Colts this weekend at home. Through the first twelve weeks, Watson is averaging 20.0 completions, 30.3 attempts, 252.6 passing yards, 1.75 touchdown passes, 0.75 interceptions, 31.3 rushing yards, and 21.3 DK points per game. He has also a total of 2 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Further adding to his appeal is the fact that several of his best fantasy outings this season have occurred at NRG Stadium where he has scored 25.0 or more DK points in four out of the six home games that the Texans have played. Watson’s home and road splits back this up as he is averaging 23.1 DK points at home and 19.5 on the road. In the first meeting between these two teams which was in Week 4 and played in Indianapolis, Watson had his best fantasy output of the year when he scored 35.1 DK points.
The Colts are currently allowing 13th fewest DK points to quarterbacks at 18.7 per game, but that low total may be due in part to the quality of quarterbacks they have faced this season. This group includes Alex Smith, Sam Darnold, Derek Anderson, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill, and Cody Kessler. Besides the aforementioned 35.1 outing by Watson earlier in the season, the Colts have also given up large totals to Tom Brady (32.54), Derek Carr (27.76), and Blake Bortles (24.6).
Ben Roethlisberger, $6100 (QB2)
Steelers at Raiders – Game Total 51.5 (PIT -10)
At this point in his career, everyone is fully aware of Roethlisberger’s fantasy performances at home compared to on the road. This season, however, that hasn’t actually held to form as much as it has in past. In the Steelers six home games this year, Roethlisberger has averaged 25.9 DK points and in their six road games he has averaged 24.5. Although the Steelers will be heading to Oakland this weekend, it might be time to let go of the notion to avoid Big Ben on the road.
Through the first twelve games, Roethlisberger is averaging 28.4 completions, 43.1 attempts, 328.8 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, 1.1 interceptions, and 25.2 DK points per game. Surprisingly, Roethlisberger has also rushed for three touchdowns this year. Whether it’s due to the play calling tendencies of new offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner or the absence of Le’Veon Bell, Roethlisberger has been on a tear this season and has scored 22.0 or more DK points in eight of twelve games and hasn’t scored less than 15.0. Pittsburgh will also be without James Connor this weekend which could open the door to even more passing opportunities against the Raiders on Sunday.
As an added bonus, Roethlisberger will be squaring off against a Raiders defense which is allowing the 10th most DK points to opposing quarterbacks at 21.2 per game. In fact, Oakland has allowed at least 15.0 DK points to every quarterback they have faced and they have given up 20.0 or more DK points to Ryan Tannehill (26.16), Philip Rivers (24.36), Russell Wilson (21.88), Andrew Luck (23.36), Nick Mullens (22.18), Lamar Jackson (22.22), and Patrick Mahomes (33.0).
Philip Rivers, $6500 (QB10)
Chargers vs Bengals – Game Total 47.5 (LAC -14)
In 2018, Philip Rivers has quietly put together an excellent fantasy campaign. While Rivers has only had one fantasy performance with more than 30.0 DK points, he has scored 20.0 or more in eight out of twelve games and his lowest total of the year has been 15.3. On the season, he is averaging 22.1 completions, 31.7 attempts, 284.8 passing yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions, and 21.8 DK points per game.
While he may lack the high ceiling of someone like Mahomes or Roethlisberger, Rivers has been as steady as the come and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every single game and has achieved a QB rating of 103.5 or higher in ten out of twelve games which makes him an ideal target for cash games.
As if his consistent play wasn’t enough, matchups don’t get any better than the one Rivers will face on Sunday. The Bengals are currently allowing the most DK points to quarterbacks at 25.1 per game. Nine of the twelve quarterbacks they have faced have scored at least 23.5 DK points and Lamar Jackson totaled 19.9. Only Ryan Tannehill (10.1) and Case Keenum (10.9) have failed to perform against this defense. If Gordon doesn’t play again this weekend, Rivers could easily smash his salary implied total in this matchup.