As we hit the final quarter stretch of the 2018 NFL regular season, most teams still have much to play for and are either trying to develop their young talent or keep their playoff hopes alive.
In Week 14, the main DraftKings slate features 13 games. In order to help navigate your roster options, I’ll provide some data points for two or three players at each position that have the potential to return value over their salary implied totals.
Before reviewing some of the possible roster options for this weekend, just a couple of quick notes beforehand.
All data and statistics included in this article are provided courtesy of FantasyData.com. All points allowed, points scored, and pricing is based on DraftKings (DK) data. In addition, all positional rankings and rankings for points allowed to each position is based on a points per game basis.
With that bit of housekeeping out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the fantasy-relevant quarterbacks on Sunday.
Keenan Allen, $7400 (WR11)
LA Chargers vs Cincinnati – Game Total 47.5 (LAC -14)
Through the first nine games of the 2017 season, Keenan Allen only had a total of two games in which he scored more than 20.0 DK points. Then coming down the home stretch, he reached that total in five of the Chargers final seven games. In 2018, is history repeating itself?
While not exactly identical, through the first seven games of the 2018 season, Allen caught a total of one touchdown and eclipsed 20.0 DK points one time. Following the Chargers bye in Week 8, Allen has once again kicked things up a notch. Over the past five games, Allen has averaged 25.2 DK points and has caught a touchdown in four straight games while scoring 20.0 or more in four of those contests. Over this stretch of games, he has received 57 total targets which has been good for 11.4 per game.
Next up for Allen and the Chargers is the Cincinnati Bengals who are allowing the 14th most points to opposing wide receivers. Although I wouldn’t expect Allen to put up a repeat performance of last week’s 39.8 outing against the Steelers, the Bengals have allowed at least one wide receiver to score at least 15.0 DK points in ten out of twelve games and eight receivers have scored more than 20.0. If Melvin Gordon is ruled out again on Sunday, Allen could continue to exceed his salary based expectations against an extremely vulnerable Bengals pass defense.
Amari Cooper, $6600 (WR27)
Dallas vs Philadelphia – Game Total 44.5 (DAL -3)
This week, the Cowboys will have the opportunity to take on the Eagles for the second time this season in a game that may very well decide the outcome of the division. While the focal point of the Cowboys offense obviously revolves around Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper is very clearly the new focal point of the Cowboys passing game.
Since being traded from the Raiders, Cooper has now played in five games with the Cowboys and has averaged 6.0 receptions, 8.0 targets, 84.8 receiving yards, and 18.5 DK points per game. Although his per game fantasy total is somewhat elevated due to the 41 DK points he put up against Washington on Thanksgiving, he has received at least 8.0 targets in four of the five games he has played in Dallas.
It’s no secret that Philadelphia’s secondary has been decimated by injuries this season and consequently, Cooper should be able to exploit this defense. Through the first twelve games, the Eagles are allowing the 2nd most DK points to opposing wide receivers at 42.8 per game. On the year, they have allowed nine different receivers to score 18.0 or more DK points. Although the Eagles secondary has seemingly held their own the past two weeks against the Giants and Washington, Cooper’s route running ability and deep play ability could pose problems for the Birds on Sunday.
DeAndre Hopkins, $7800 (WR7)
Houston vs Indianapolis – Game Total 50.5 (HOU -4.5)
This season, Hopkins has continued to show why he is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Through the first twelve games, Hopkins is averaging 6.7 receptions, 9.5 targets, 92.9 receiving yards, and 20.7 DK points per game. Nuk is also the top-ranked receiver here on FlurrySports for this weekend.
Although his lowest total of the year came in Week 12 when he only logged 12.4 DK points against Tennessee, he has scored 26.0 or more DK points in five games this season. Hopkins highest total of the year occurred against this very same Colts defense back in Week 4 when he scored 35.9 DK points while catching 10 passes on 12 targets for 169 yards and 1 touchdown.
On the year, the Colts are allowing the 5th fewest DK points to opposing wide receivers. While this might scare some off of Hopkins in this game, Indianapolis hasn’t exactly faced a who’s-who of wide receiver talent this season. In reviewing the fantasy output of receivers against the Colts pass defense, the only other pass catcher with a comparable skill set and workload to Hopkins was A.J. Green in Week 1. In that game, Green scored 20.2 DK points while 6 of 8 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Don’t sleep on Nuk this weekend.