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NFL Playoff Picture for the AFC Going Into Week 16

The NFL playoff picture for the AFC has changed a bit, with some surprises last week. We saw a change at the top, as well as a new division leader. With three weeks left to play in the season, some games this week can make or break the NFL Playoff chances for some teams as well as make some divisions clearer.

nfl playoff picture playoffs week 16
Credit: Scott Winters/Getty Images

NFL Playoff Picture | AFC

NFL Playoff percentages provided by FiveThirtyEight

#1 Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) 1st in AFC West

  • 99% chance to make the playoffs
  • 95% chance to win the division
  • 62% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games:  PIT, @CIN, @DEN

#2 New England Patriots (9-5) 1st in AFC East

  • 98% chance to make the playoffs
  • 67% chance to win the division
  • 23% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: BUF, JAX, @MIA

#3 Tennesee Titans (9-5) 1st in AFC South

  • 95% chance to make the playoffs
  • 84% chance to win the division
  • 11% chance earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: SF, MIA, @HOU

#4 Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) 1st in AFC North

  • 50% chance to make the playoffs
  • 38% chance to win the division
  • 1% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: BAL, KC, @CLE


#5 Indianapolis Colts (8-6) 2nd AFC South

  • 89% chance to make the playoffs
  • 16% chance to win the division
  • 1% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: @ARI, LV, @JAX

#6 Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) 2nd in AFC West

  • 76% chance to make the playoffs
  • 5% chance to win the division
  • .9% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: @HOU, DEN, @LV

#7 Buffalo Bills (8-6) 2nd AFC East

  • 76% chance to make the playoffs
  • 33% chance to win the division
  • .6% chance to earn the one seed
  • Remaining games: @NE, ATL, NYJ

Out of NFL Playoffs if They Started Today

Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

Remaining games: @CIN, LAR, PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1)

Remaining games: @KC, CLE, @BAL

Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

Remaining games: DEN, @IND, LAC

Miami Dolphins (7-7)

Remaining games: @NO, @TEN, NE

Cleveland Browns (7-7)

Remaining games: @GB, @PIT, CIN

Denver Broncos (7-7)

Remaining games: @LV, @LAC, KC

Maybe Next Year

New York Jets

Houston Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars


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