We’ve been kicking ourselves in the FlurrySports NFL Upset Alert Betting Picks Office big time. Of all the weeks to get sick and miss writing this weekly column, of course, it was last weekend. Week 9 saw complete and total chaos take place around the league. In total, NFL betting underdogs wound up covering 10 of the 14 total games. Dogs playing on the road were particularly successful, covering eight out of ten such scenarios. Through nine weeks, NFL betting favorites are now only 56-77-1 ATS and favorites playing at home are an even worse 31-51-1 ATS. Those equate to cover rates of 42% and 38% respectively. There are bound to be more upsets on tap in Week 10. The question is simply where they will come from.
The following article looks at three NFL betting favorites who are officially on upset alert ahead of their Week 10 matchups including the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams.
3 Teams on Upset Alert for Week 10 | NFL Betting Picks
After stunning the Los Angeles Rams last weekend, the NFL betting public is once again in awe of the Tennessee Titans. 68% of moneyline bets placed at the time of writing were on the Titans ahead of their Week 10 home game against the New Orleans Saints. In reality, Mike Vrabel’s squad was very fortunate last week. The Rams dominated the box score in terms of statistics and yet still lost by double-digits. The Titans’ defense came up huge with multiple turnovers and strong play in the red zone. It’s unlikely that they will be able to put together that same type of game script again this week. While Julio Jones’ return to the lineup adds another weapon for Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee’s offense will continue to face an uphill battle without Derrick Henry.
Although they are only catching three points on the road, it’s hard to say that the Saints aren’t an “ugly dog” this week. Trevor Siemian may have held off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after taking over for the fallen Jameis Winston two weeks ago. However, he followed it up with a disappointing home loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday. While the quarterback position is going to handicap Sean Payton’s offenses the rest of the season, the Saints are one of the most equipped teams to overcome the situation. With a solid RB tandem in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram plus a top-three defense in adjusted efficiency, the team around Siemian remains one of the best in the NFL. The defense is certainly capable of shutting down an offense that has lost its biggest threat.
Saints vs Titans NFL Betting Picks
Expectations were low for the Titans’ defense coming into the year. While they have generated a consistent pass rush, Tennessee only ranks 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency against the run. That spells trouble against a Saints team that wants to run and play small ball up and down the field. This figures to be a great game between two well-coached teams. With four straight wins over playoff-caliber opponents, the Titans are a public darling. When it comes to NFL betting picks, fading said public is almost always a good idea. Count on the Saints to bounce back after last week’s disappointing defeat.
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Vikings vs Chargers (-3.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers snapped a two-game losing skid last Sunday with a tight victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Brandon Staley’s team opened as a three-point favorite ahead of that game only to see the Eagles garner sharp money. L.A. went out and had easily their best offensive performance in the last three games to rebound from two straight losses. Justin Herbert had over 350 yards passing with Keenan Allen serving as his go-to target. The Chargers also displayed their depth by getting all three of their tight ends involved in a terrific matchup for the position. While this week’s NFL betting matchup figures to be difficult when it comes to the aerial attack, Los Angeles does have an upper hand in terms of talent over a young Minnesota Vikings secondary.
Speaking of the Vikings, how many close losses and blown leads can this team pile up? Mike Zimmer may very well be coaching for his job the rest of the season after his team squandered a double-digit second-half advantage and lost in overtime last week to the Baltimore Ravens. Kirk Cousins has led Minnesota to a sixth overall ranking in passing offense DVOA. Likewise, the Vikings’ defense is actually third in DVOA on the season. The fact that the team continues to lose games is mind-boggling. It won’t be easy for Cousins this week against an elite Chargers pass D. Perhaps the controversy surrounding Dalvin Cook off the field throughout the week will fire him up to run wild on Sunday.
Vikings vs Chargers NFL Betting Picks
Based on adjusted statistics, the Vikings are clearly a better football team than their 3-5 record suggests. After an embarrassing loss to the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota followed it up with a blown lead last week. This game is massive for both sides in their respective playoff races, but it sure takes on the feel of meaning something bigger than that for the Vikings. Add in the fact that at least half of the SoFi Stadium crowd will likely be chanting “Skol!” and the Vikings are indeed a live road dog.
Rams (-4) vs 49ers
Rounding out this week’s NFL betting picks column is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Despite last week’s loss to the aforementioned Tennessee Titans, the Rams have actually seen the line move one point in their favor ahead of this massive NFC West Division battle. Quarterback Matthew Stafford certainly has no shortage of weapons at his disposal. The receiving corps of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson should be able to light up a vulnerable 49ers’ secondary. Recent transactions including trading for linebacker Von Miller and signing wideout Odell Beckham Jr. have only further emphasized that the Rams are all in on this season. A win on Monday is vital to them keeping pace in the division and in the race for the NFC’s top seed.
While there is plenty at stake on Monday night for Los Angeles, the same can be said for Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. After losing to Colt McCoy and an undermanned Arizona Cardinals outfit last week, San Francisco is now 3-5 and on the outside looking in when it comes to a wide-open NFC Wild Card picture. The pressure is mounting and this NFL betting matchup would be the ideal time for San Fran to notch their first win at home of the season. Jimmy Garoppolo does have his full complement of pass-catchers finally healthy with the return of George Kittle last week. Brandon Aiyuk has also been playing well of late. He will need to again in a game where Deebo Samuel figures to be largely covered by star Rams corner Jalen Ramsey.
Rams vs 49ers NFL Betting Picks
Interestingly enough, the public NFL betting picks count for this matchup is the most lopsided of any game in Week 10. An overwhelming 95% of moneyline bets placed to date are on the Rams. The spread ticket count is also extremely lopsided. If the NFL has taught us anything this season and especially last week, it’s that nothing is ever guaranteed. One key trend that stands out for this game is the recent success of underdogs in the Rams vs 49ers head-to-head series. Along with covering each of the last four meetings, dogs are 3-1 outright. San Francisco sure would love to run that to 4-1 on Monday night.
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