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Oregon State vs Loyola (Chicago) Prediction, Odds and Betting Trends for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

After an unforgettable first weekend, it’s on to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. The regional semifinal action tips off on Saturday with four games across both the Midwest and South Regions. The first matchup is a surprising one, to say the least, as 8-seed Loyola (Chicago) battles 12-seed Oregon State for the right to advance to the Midwest Regional Final. The college basketball betting odds have declared the Ramblers as healthy favorites in advance of this matchup.

The following offers a comprehensive breakdown and betting preview of Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game. Read on for vital game information, team statistics, trends and predictions for the Oregon State vs Loyola matchup.

Oregon State vs Loyola Sweet 16 Game Info

Oregon State Beavers (19-12) vs. Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers (26-4)
Saturday, Mar. 27, 2021
Start Time: 2:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse — Indianapolis, IN
Coverage: CBS

Oregon State vs Loyola prediction, odds and betting trends for the Sweet 16 college basketball matchup in the NCAA Tournament. Cameron Krutwig
Credit: Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

Oregon State vs Loyola Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook

Moneyline: OSU: (+230) | LOY: (-280)
Spread: OSU: +6.5 (-105) | LOY: -6.5 (-115)
Total: 125.5  — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 | College Basketball Betting Overview

Oregon State Basketball Outlook

A few weeks ago, Oregon State wasn’t even on the radar as a team that would be in the NCAA Tournament field. After three wins in three days to capture the Pac-12 Tournament title, the Beavers stole a bid and slotted in as the 12-seed in the Midwest Region. Not many had OSU going far, but Wayne Tinkle’s team has kept right on trucking. After an opening-round upset of Tennessee, the Beavs dispatched NBA lottery pick Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State in the Second Round to reach the Sweet 16.

White-hot shooting has been the catalyst behind the Beavers’ recent run of success and they’ll look to keep riding it on Saturday. Given the pesky Loyola (Chicago) defense they’ll be up against, hitting shots will be critical for OSU to continue their Cinderella run. Guard Ethan Thompson leads the team in scoring this season and he showed out in both games last weekend. After notching a double-double in the win over Tennessee, Thompson put up 26 points and grabbed 7 boards in the upset of Oklahoma State. For a team that was picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 preseason poll, a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament is a major accomplishment. 

Oregon State KenPom Ratings

  • Overall Efficiency Margin: +14.98 (No. 48 in NCAA)
  • Offense: 111.1 (No. 41 in NCAA)
  • Defense: 96.2 (No. 69 in NCAA)
  • Tempo: 65.7 (No. 303 in NCAA)

Loyola Basketball Outlook

The Fighting Sister Jeans are dancing once again folks! After pretty much steamrolling the competition on their way to a Missouri Valley Conference championship, Loyola (Chicago) is back in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 for the second time in the last four seasons. Many college basketball analysts have debated the legitimacy of the Ramblers being the 8-seed in the Midwest Region. After not only upsetting Illinois but really dominating the Big Ten champs in the Second Round, those arguments carry even more weight.

Loyola (Chicago) is led by senior center Cameron Krutwig and guard Lucas Williamson. The former dropped a 19-point, 15-rebound masterpiece in the win over Illinois while the latter checked in with 14 points. Both seniors were freshmen on the Ramblers team that advanced to the Final Four back in 2018, so NCAA Tournament experience is not an issue with this team. Porter Moser is an excellent coach and has Loyola playing the best defense in the country this season. After knocking out the ACC and Big Ten tournament champions in the first weekend, the Ramblers will look to dispatch yet another power conference winner in Oregon State on Saturday.

Loyola KenPom Ratings

  • Overall Efficiency Margin: +25.53 (No. 9 in NCAA)
  • Offense: 111.7 (No. 35 in NCAA)
  • Defense: 86.1 (No. 2 in NCAA)
  • Tempo: 63.9 (No. 342 in NCAA)
  • Oregon State 2020-21 Betting Trends: 21-9-1 ATS; 19-12 to the Over
  • Loyola (Chicago) 2020-21 Betting Trends: 18-9-1 ATS; 13-15 to the Over
  • Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a neutral site underdog.
  • Oregon State is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.
  • Loyola (Chicago) is 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • Seven of Oregon State’s last eight games as an underdog have gone over the total.
  • The total has gone over in seven of Loyola’s last eight games as a neutral site favorite.
Ethan Thompson
Credit: John Locher/AP

Oregon State vs Loyola Stats

  • Oregon State is averaging 69.5 PPG this season (No. 194 in NCAA)
  • Oregon State is surrendering 68.8 PPG (No. 19 in NCAA)
  • Loyola (Chicago) is averaging 70.6 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 168 in NCAA)
  • Loyola (Chicago) is surrendering 56.1 PPG on the season (No. 1 in NCAA)

Oregon State vs Loyola Prediction

All signs point to Loyola (Chicago) being the right side for this game. The Ramblers bring the nation’s top defense (No. 2 based on adjusted KenPom ratings), NCAA Tournament experience and senior leadership to the table. Oh, and Sister Jean too. With that said, Oregon State is on some kind of run right now. Can Loyola dictate terms in this Sweet 16 matchup the same way they did against Illinois last weekend?

My preferred betting angle for this game involves the total. I fully expect Oregon State’s shooting to cool off a bit against the sturdy Loyola (Chicago) defense. That said, if the Beavers can contain Loyola’s offense at the other end, this game could very well turn into a defensive stand-off. I expect Wayne Tinkle to have a strong defensive gameplan in place to do just that. Furthermore, both teams ranked outside of the top 300 in adjusted tempo this season. The ramblers were a particularly slow bunch, rating 342nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings. 

A slow pace combined with scrappy defensive play on both sides leads me to look under the total of 125.5. This is a game where the first team to 60 could very well be sitting pretty to come out on top.

Pick: Under 125.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

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