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Georgia Southern vs Buffalo Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Camellia Bowl

Tuesday’s quadruple-header of college football bowl games gets begins with the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The MAC and Sun Belt Conferences will be on display as the Georgia Southern Eagles tangle with the Buffalo Bulls. Both teams won their respective regular-season finales to clinch bowl eligibility. This game will feature an interesting contrast in styles as well. The Georgia Southern vs Buffalo odds and college football betting picks favor the Sun Belt representative.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Georgia Southern vs Buffalo prediction for the Camellia Bowl matchup.

Georgia Southern vs Buffalo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Camellia Bowl
Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6, 3-5 SBC) vs. Buffalo Bulls (6-6, 5-3 MAC)
Date: Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Time: 12 p.m. EST
Venue: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, AL
Coverage: ESPN

After winning just three games a year ago, Georgia Southern hired Clay Helton to be its next head coach. Helton not only did away with the program’s triple-option attack but he replaced it with a spread offense. Georgia Southern turned plenty of heads early on with a massive upset over Nebraska early in the season. Despite struggling in Sun Belt Conference play, the Eagles were able to beat Appalachian State in the season-finale to become bowl-eligible.

Buffalo struggled mightily in non-conference play to begin the year. An eight-point home loss to FCS-level Holy Cross was undoubtedly the low point of the season. Once conference play began, the Bulls started to turn things around. UB rattled off a five-game winning streak, culminating with a victory over eventual league champion Toledo. The three straight losses that followed nearly doomed the Bulls’ bowl hopes, but they were able to squeak out a one-point win over Akron in the season finale.

Cole Snyder Georgia Southern vs Buffalo prediction odds college football betting picks Camellia Bowl game predictions
Credit: Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Georgia Southern vs Buffalo College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Georgia Southern vs Buffalo can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: GSO: (-180) | BUF: (+160)
Point Spread: GSO: -4 (-116) | BUF: +4 (-104)
Total: 66.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Camellia Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Georgia Southern-.26 (84).43 (41)-1.10 (126)
Buffalo-.30 (90)-.59 (99)-.11 (66)
  • Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
  • Each of the Eagles’ last four neutral site games has stayed UNDER the total.
  • Six of the Eagles’ last eight games following a straight up win have gone UNDER the total.
  • Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
  • Bulls are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games after playing Akron in their previous game.
  • The OVER is 12-3 in the Bulls’ last 15 games played on a Tuesday.
  • Bulls are 0-3 straight up and 1-1-1 ATS against Sun Belt Conference opponents since 2018.

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Georgia Southern vs Buffalo Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Although there is no recent head-to-head history between these schools, Georgia Southern and Buffalo are linked to one another in a different way. After spending the entirety of his collegiate career up until 2022 in Western New York, quarterback Kyle Vantrease elected to transfer to Statesboro and play for Clay Helton. Thus, many are dubbing this Camellia Bowl matchup the “Kyle Vantrease Revenge Game”.

What’s crazy is that Vantrease posted very modest numbers while at Buffalo. The Bulls were a run-first offense and never really had a flashy passing attack during his time there. Upon transferring the Georgia Southern, Vantrease showed that he was far more than a game-managing QB. His Sun Belt-leading 3,901 passing yards also saw him finish seventh nationally.

There’s no disputing the fact that much of the Eagles’ success in Helton’s first year can be attributed to Vantrease. Unfortunately, while the Georgia Southern offense was routinely lighting up the scoreboard, the defense struggled to slow down opponents. The Eagles gave up the third-most rushing yards per game (246.3) in all of college football and weren’t much better against the pass.

With regard to Tuesday’s matchup, the question becomes whether or not the Buffalo offense will be able to take advantage of Southern’s woes defensively. Rutgers transfer Cole Snyder finished second in the MAC in passing yards, but the Bulls’ offense as a whole struggled to maintain consistency on a week-to-week basis. Losing a receiver and a tight end to the transfer portal doesn’t figure to help the cause.

The status of Bulls running backs Al-Jay Henderson and Ron Cook Jr. will be worth monitoring after both missed the regular-season finale. UB’s run game was nonexistent in their absence. Add in the fact that Georgia Southern already owns an 11-point victory over a MAC opponent this season and laying the four points with the Eagles feels like the right play to make against Vantrease’s former team.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN COVERS will be our official college football betting Georgia Southern vs Buffalo prediction for the Camellia Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Georgia Southern a 56.8% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Georgia Southern -4 (-116 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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