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Florida vs Oregon State Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Las Vegas Bowl

The Las Vegas Bowl is one of college football’s longest-standing bowl games, but this marks only the second year that the game will be played at Allegiant Stadium. Saturday afternoon’s matchup between the Florida Gators and the Oregon State Beavers has unfortunately garnered a lot of negative publicity due to several players on both sides either opting out or entering the transfer portal. The Florida vs Oregon State odds and college football betting picks market have been extremely fluid due to these personnel uncertainties.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Florida vs Oregon State prediction for the Las Vegas Bowl matchup.

Florida vs Oregon State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Las Vegas Bowl
Florida Gators (6-6, 3-5 SEC) vs. Oregon State Beavers (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12)
Date: Saturday, December 17, 2022
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: ESPN

Florida kicked off the Billy Napier era by upsetting Utah. Now, the Gators are set to end the season against another Pac-12 opponent. Inconsistency plagued Florida throughout the regular season, and the month of November was no exception. After routing both Texas A&M and South Carolina, the Gators went and lost outright to perennial SEC armpit, Vanderbilt. QB Anthony Richardson headlines a lengthy list of NFL Draft opt-outs and transfer portal entrants that will be unavailable for the Las Vegas Bowl.

For Oregon State, this matchup provides the opportunity to notch a statement victory against a highly-touted SEC opponent. The Beavers have steadily been on the rise since Jonathan Smith took over as head coach five years ago. A win on Saturday would give OSU its first bowl game victory since 2013. It would also clinch the program’s first 10-win season since 2006! As has been the case all season, the Beavers will rely on their rushing attack which is led by Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick.

Damien Martinez Florida vs Oregon State prediction odds college football betting picks Las Vegas Bowl game predictions
Credit: Amanda Loman / Associated Press

Florida vs Oregon State College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Florida vs Oregon State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: FLA: (+290) | OSU: (-360)
Point Spread: FLA: +10 (-115) | OSU: -10 (-105)
Total: 52.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Las Vegas Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Florida.50 (23).94 (20).07 (58)
Oregon State.54 (21).43 (40).72 (16)
  • Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss.
  • Five of the Gators’ last six games following an ATS win have gone UNDER the total.
  • The OVER is 7-0 in the Gators’ last seven games after gaining more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Beavers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • The OVER is 7-0 in the Beavers’ last seven games after finishing with a turnover margin of -3 or worse in their previous game.
  • Beavers are 14-3 ATS following a straight up win spanning the last three seasons.
  • Prior to upsetting Utah in Week 1, the Gators had not gone head-to-head against a Pac-12 opponent since 1989.

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Florida vs Oregon State Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

In addition to quarterback Anthony Richardson, Florida will also be without offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence and linebacker Ventrell Miller. All three players have opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and their absences will certainly be felt. Throw in the bevy of Gators that decided to enter the college football transfer portal and the Florida vs Oregon State odds have undergone a massive adjustment in the latter’s favor.

Redshirt freshman and Ohio State transfer Jack Miller III is expected to make his first career start at quarterback for Florida on Saturday. Although the lack of experience is a minus, the Gators’ passing attack can’t be much worse than it was in the final two games of the regular season with Richardson under center.

What’s more, Miller certainly has a potent rushing attack to lean on. Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne have been one of the better backfield tandems in the country this season. Although Oregon State allowed the 15th-fewest rushing yards per game defensively, slowing down a Florida ground game that averaged more than 200 yards per game is hardly an easy task.

Meanwhile, Beavers fans were able to breathe a sigh of relief with regard to leading rusher, Damien Martinez. Although he sustained an injury in the Civil War victory over Oregon, he looks to be locked and loaded for the Las Vegas Bowl. Given how lackluster the attack has been since Ben Gulbranson took over at QB for the injured Chance Nolan (now in the transfer portal), bettors should expect Oregon State to be committed to running the ball early and often.

This brings us to our college football betting picks handicap for this matchup. Much has been made about the opt-outs on the Florida side. However, Oregon State technically is playing a backup QB as well. The Gators certainly have the talent to cover the double-digit point spread. Add in the massive line move that has already transpired and it’s impossible to feel good about backing the Beavs at this juncture.

FLORIDA COVERS will be our official college football betting Florida vs Oregon State prediction for the Las Vegas Bowl.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Oregon State a 57.1% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Florida +10 (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)


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