Derrick Henry Fantasy Football 2021 Outlook + Stats: Buy or Sell His ADP?

The human bowling ball that is Derrick Henry had another fantastic year in 2020. After a top-five fantasy football running back season in 2019, he followed it up with a RB2 finish in PPR leagues. It’s not too surprising to see, as he ran for over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. 

While his receiving output leaves something to be desired, it’s hard to argue with his production. The biggest news this offseason for the Tennessee Titans, however, wasn’t about Henry, but the acquisition of Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons. How will that impact Henry’s output in 2021?

Let’s discuss Derrick Henry’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, including his stats from 2020 and giving our buy or sell decision based on his current average draft position (ADP).

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football Outlook 2021

2020 Fantasy Stats

Games Played: 16
Fantasy Points (PPR): 343.2
Fantasy Rank: RB2
Boom%: 37.5%
Starter%: 75%
Bust%: 12.5%

Derrick Henry 2021 Outlook

In a league where dual-back use has become much more mainstream, the Titans certainly don’t and won’t be utilizing that approach. Derrick Henry is the guy in Nashville, and there is no question about it. The one big difference for the Titans offense in 2021 is the acquisition of wide receiver Julio Jones. The pairing Julio and AJ Brown will make their passing game a nightmare to defend, which should open up the running game for Derrick Henry even more.

When it comes to injuries, Henry may be the most durable running back we’ve seen in a long time. Since his rookie season in 2016, Henry has only missed two games in the span of five seasons. With any running back like Henry, there is always concern about injuries, but he has shown us nothing to think he can’t play 16-17 games this season.

While Henry did have a bust percentage of 12.5%, much of that can be attributed to opposing defenses selling out on the run and making the arm of Ryan Tannehill beat them. With the addition of Julio, this is no longer a viable option for opposing defenses. While his boom percentage will likely dip, he should be even more consistent than last season.

The Titans face the 12th-easiest strength of schedule among rushing defenses in the 2021 season. That, coupled with the previously mentioned inability for defenses to sell out on the running game, spells another productive season for Henry. The only question mark that remains to be seen is how the Titans handle their game plan with Julio Jones. Do they use Julio as more of a “decoy” and still run heavy with Henry, or do they start to air it out more? 

Derrick Henry Fantasy Football ADP | Buy or Sell?

The ADP of Derrick Henry was taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on June 26th and has Henry being taken fourth overall. At this position, Henry looks like a sell candidate for the 2021 season. While the running lanes will get open more with defenses having to stay true to the passing game, there is too much we don’t know about how this Tennessee offense will operate. 

There is sure to be regression from last season, and with plenty of question marks, I don’t see him as being worth the risk that comes with a top-four pick. As durable as he’s been, I don’t see how it can continue either with the way he runs. Seeing how he needed an all-time season to be RB2, he’s too risky to use with such an early pick.