If the Chicago Bears could draft quarterbacks like they draft running backs, they would have multiple Super Bowls by now. David Montgomery is the perfect example of how good Chicago is at drafting running backs. In his second year in the NFL, Montgomery ran for over 1,000 yards, caught over 400 receiving yards and totaled 10 touchdowns. Montgomery was fifth overall in all-purpose yards and rushing yards, while ranking fourth in total touches.
In season three, we can likely expect more of the same from Montgomery. Even though Tarik Cohen will be back after tearing his ACL during the 2020 season, Montgomery should still see enough run to keep him as an elite option at running back. Let’s discuss David Montgomery’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, including his stats from 2020 and giving our buy or sell decision based on his current average draft position (ADP).
David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook 2021
2020 Fantasy Stats
Games Played: 15
Fantasy Points (PPR): 267.9
Fantasy Rank: RB6
Boom%: 33.3%
Starter%: 73.3%
Bust%: 26.7%
David Montgomery 2021 Outlook
Although Tarik Cohen’s return will take some touches away, it is very clear that he is the back to own in Chicago. Cohen is utilized more in the passing game so he shouldn’t take much away from Montgomery in the rushing attack. If anything, Cohen may actually help Montgomery’s production, with the two play in some formations together, taking some of the focus off of Montgomery.
When it comes to Montgomery’s durability, he has been the most durable backs in the league. He strained his groin in training camp last year. However, that didn’t stop him from missing any games. He did suffer a concussion late in Week 10 last season, but he only missed one game. In college, he injured his upper arm against TCU, but returned after missing only one game.
Although his fantasy football bust percentage was high, much of that is thanks to the Bears’ inability to move the ball, thanks to poor quarterback play. Due to this, Chicago was rarely in scoring position, leading to just one rushing touchdown for Montgomery in the first nine weeks of the season.
Another piece of good news for Montgomery is that the Bears play the ninth-easiest running back schedule. If the Bears can just get average play at the quarterback position, Montgomery should be more than able to produce another stellar season for fantasy owners.
David Montgomery Fantasy Football ADP | Buy or Sell?
The ADP of David Montgomery was taken from Fantasy Football Calculator on July 6th and sees him ranked #38 overall (21st among running backs). Montgomery is absolutely a buy at this rank and, in my opinion, is the steal of the draft.
Not only was he one of the most productive backs last season, but he had 11 carries or less four times on the season. There is no way that happens again, unless somehow the quarterback situation for the Bears is worse than last year, which is incredibly hard to believe. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season and had just over 18 carries per game, when not counting the four outliers.
Using that math, Montgomery lost out on about 80 rushing yards last season. While that certainly doesn’t sound like much, that’s enough to make him RB5 last season and just nine points behind Aaron Jones. Sure, his workload will regress a bit, but Montgomery’s production will raise enough to make him a top-10 fantasy football running back. As a result, Montgomery is an absolute steal at 38th overall and 21st among running backs.
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