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College Football Picks: Miami vs. Louisville

We have officially reached the third week of the 2020 College Football season. While we are still well short of what would typically be considered a full slate of games, the number continues to steadily grow. With the SEC set to begin its season next weekend, the Big Ten announcing plans for a late October start, and even the Pac-12, MAC, and Mountain West mulling over potential return plans, there will be plenty of college football picks in our future.

The ACC began its season last week, with teams playing a mix of conference and non-conference games. Both Miami and Louisville triumphed in their season openers against Conference USA opponents. The Hurricanes pulled away from UAB for a 38-14 win while the Cardinals took down Western Kentucky 35-21. The two teams are now set to collide in a cross-divisional matchup to kick off their respective ACC seasons. ESPN’s College Gameday will be on sight for this primetime showdown that is every bit deserving of being the favorite of our Week 3 college football picks.

Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Miami vs. Louisville Game and Betting Info | College Football Picks

  • Location: Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, KY
  • Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Television: ABC
  • Point Spread: Louisville -2.5
  • Over/Under: 64.5
  • Moneyline: Louisville -140 | Miami +120
  • Last Meeting: November 9, 2019 – Miami defeated Louisville 52-27 in Miami

Odds Courtesy of MyBookie Sportsbook

Miami vs. Louisville College Football Picks

There are so many levels of intrigue to this game that it was an easy choice for our college football picks, especially with the cancellation of Houston-Baylor. The short point spread and high total on the betting market suggest a back-and-forth affair with plenty of scoring. Both Miami and Louisville bring talented offenses to the table. The defenses for both sides will have all they can do to keep up. Add in the top-25 rankings implications (Miami is ranked No. 17, Louisville No. 18 in the AP Poll) and College Football fans could be in store for a Saturday evening treat.

Miami Hurricanes Overview

Miami is coming off a disappointing 2019 that saw them go 6-7 overall and just 4-4 in ACC play. After a slow start against UAB, the Hurricanes took control in the second half to win convincingly. Manny Diaz figures to have the talent in place for a better overall showing in 2020.

The Hurricanes presented a new offensive identity in their win over UAB last week, running the ball with authority. Four Miami players amassed over 50 yards rushing in the game. Cam’Ron Harris led the way with 134 yards on 17 carries (7.9 average) and two touchdowns. D’Eriq King, making his Hurricanes debut after transferring from Houston, chalked up 83 rushing yards and a score to go along with 141 yards and one TD passing. With a clear-cut starting QB in place, Miami figures to pose a much more consistent offensive threat to opponents this season.

The narrative surrounding the Hurricanes’ defense all offseason was that it would be a tale of front and back. Miami’s defensive line, anchored by tackles Jonathan Ford and Nesta Jade Silvera, has been included in conversations about the best defensive fronts in the country. Unfortunately, the secondary is not quite as deep or experienced. Generating a consistent pass rush will be key in preventing Louisville from having a monster day through the air.

Louisville Cardinals Overview

Many felt that Louisville overachieved in 2019. They punctuated their season with a victory in the Music City Bowl over Mississippi State. An 8-5 record overall included going 5-3 in ACC play and finishing second in the ACC Atlantic Division. When the only team you are behind in your division is the mighty Clemson Tigers, the season has to be considered a success.

Like Miami, the Cardinals have an explosive quarterback of their own in Malik Cunningham. He played brilliantly in the win over WKU last week, piling up 343 yards passing and four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing). Chatarius Atwell, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Braden Smith are an extremely talented trio of receivers. They have the potential to take the top off a Miami secondary that is average at best.

Louisville’s defense was very suspect last season but did a nice job against a Hilltoppers team that is one of the college football picks to be the best in Conference USA, particularly on offense. They will need to play with even more discipline and intensity this week against the new-look Miami offense.

Miami vs. Louisville Betting Trends

  • Louisville is 3-2 straight up against Miami in the last five head-to-head meetings
  • Miami is 7-3 straight up against Louisville in the last ten head-to-head meetings
  • Miami went 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 2-0 ATS as a road underdog last season
  • Louisville is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • The Over has hit in five of the last six games in which Louisville has been favored.

Miami vs. Louisville Statistics

  • Miami amassed 337 total rushing yards in their first game of the season, compared to Louisville’s 144.
  • Louisville is averaging 18.05 yards per completion on the season, compared to Miami’s 8.78.
  • Miami converted 41.2% of 3rd downs this season; Louisville has converted 56.3%.

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