Before we get into this weekend’s best college football betting picks, let’s talk about Purdue.
Being a Purdue fan must be the weirdest thing in the world. All they do is knock off top-five opponents. So far this year, the Boilermakers have beaten Iowa, 24-7, when the Hawkeyes were ranked second in the country. This past weekend, the Boilermakers took down another top-five team in Michigan State, 40-29. That victory was the third win over a top-five team during head coach Jeff Brohm’s five-year career there. The other top-five win came in 2018, and will forever be known as the Tyler Trent game. Second-ranked Ohio State walked into Ross Ade Stadium and was thrashed by Purdue, 49-20. Unfortunately, they won’t be able to add another win versus a top-five team this weekend, as Ohio State is currently ranked sixth in the latest AP poll.
Purdue will have an upset on their mind when they take the field in Columbus on Saturday afternoon. However, that isn’t the only key game of the weekend. Baylor will host the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners at noon. Also kicking off at noon is Michigan at Penn State. The Nittany Lions’ defense will look to stall the Wolverines’ rushing attack, especially because the Wolverines will be without running back Blake Corum this week. Another big game kicking off at noon is Oklahoma at Baylor, as the Sooners look to add to their undefeated season. At 3:30, Georgia will take on its next challenger, Tennessee, who’s been great offensively. Finally, in the only other top-15 matchup, Texas A&M will travel to The Grove to take on Ole Miss.
Let’s take a look at the most recent College Football Playoff Rankings, then dive into my best college football betting picks for Week 11.
College Football Playoff Rankings & Week 11 Match-ups
- Georgia (9-0) (At Tennessee)
- Alabama (8-1) (Hosting New Mexico State)
- Oregon (8-1) (Hosting Washington State)
- Ohio State (8-1) (Hosting No. 19 Purdue)
- Cincinnati (9-0) (At South Florida)
- Michigan (8-1) (At Penn State)
- Michigan State (8-1) (Hosting Maryland)
- Oklahoma (9-0) (At No. 13 Baylor)
- Notre Dame (8-1) (At Virginia)
- Oklahoma State (8-1) (Hosting TCU)
It’s easy to forget that the new College Football Playoff Rankings were released again this week. The top two, Georgia and Alabama, didn’t budge. However, after the Michigan State loss, Oregon jumped up to third in the rankings. Finally, after struggling with Nebraska last weekend, the Buckeyes of Ohio State plugged in at the fourth spot in this edition of the rankings.
It’s unlikely that either of the top two teams will lose before the SEC Championship game, even though Alabama will have to go on the road to beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Oregon and Ohio State have pretty clear paths as well. If both of them just win out the rest of the way, it would be incredibly hard for anyone to jump them. However, with the Playoff now fresh in everyone’s mind, let’s take a look at my best bets for Week 11 in college football.
Best Bets For Week 10 | College Football Betting
Georgia vs Tennessee
Spread: UGA -20.5 (-105) | TENN +20.5 (-115)
Moneyline: UGA (-1200) | TENN (+750)
Total: 56 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why Bet the Under: This is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Tennessee has been great offensively this year. They rank 21st in the nation in total offense, as quarterback Hendon Hooker and the offense have been able to light up the scoreboard. However, unfortunately, that ends this weekend when they meet the Georgia defense.
As I have done in every Georgia game, I will take the under. Since the Bulldogs’ 62-0 win over Vanderbilt, the total has gone under in every single Georgia game since. They beat Arkansas 37-0 and the total was 48.5. The same thing happened this past weekend when the Bulldogs beat Missouri, 43-6. The total before the game was 59.5, so the under hit as well in that game. There’s no reason to go against something that has been working all year. Finally, Georgia and their opponents have only scored 56, this week’s total, twice. Hammer the under here.
The Pick: Under 56
Michigan vs Penn State
Spread: MICH -1 (-110) | PSU +1 (-110)
Moneyline: MICH (-115) | PSU (-105)
Total: 48.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet the Under: I’m a big under guy in college football this year. It finally seems like teams are starting to play elite defense again. Both of these teams have two of the best defenses in the Big Ten, so already the under seems like a great play. Between the two teams, they and their opponents have only gone over the total in eight out of 18 opportunities this year.
Penn State struggles when the offense can’t get going early, and I think Michigan will take advantage of that. The Wolverines are ranked seventh in the country in total defense, giving up less than 300 yards per game. On top of all of this, there’s a good chance it will rain on Saturday, making the conditions much worse, and the ball that much more slippery. Take the under here, as these guys might not combine to get 40 points tomorrow afternoon.
The Pick: Under 48.5
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Purdue vs Ohio State
Spread: OSU -20.5 (-115) | PUR +20.5 (-105)
Moneyline: OSU (-1100) | PUR (+700)
Total: 62.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet the Under: I know, another under, but hear me out. I think you’d be wise to stay away from the spread here. Both teams have been inconsistent at times, and both hold a 5-4 record against the spread. On top of that, Ohio State’s offense did not look overly impressive last week against Nebraska. Also, Ohio State and their opponents have gone over 62.5 five times this year, while Purdue has only reached that benchmark twice this season.
As I said, I’m staying away from the spread on this one because it’s hard to get a gauge on how good these two teams really are. However, we are lucky in that we should find out this week if Ohio State is for real or if Purdue is on the rise once again. Still, take the under.
The Pick: Under 62.5
Oklahoma vs Baylor
Spread: OU -5.5 (-105) | BAY +5.5 (-115)
Moneyline: OU (-200) | BAY (+170)
Total: 62.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Why to Bet Baylor +5.5: Baylor is once again a program on the rise. This year, under head coach Dave Aranda, the Bears have surpassed early expectations. Aranda is using the offensive scheme that guided LSU to a national title in 2019. The Bears are 21st in the nation in total offense, which should come as no surprise. However, their defense isn’t too shabby either, giving up less than 375 yards of total offense. Now, with that being said, it’s not going to be a cakewalk for the Bears.
Sooner freshman quarterback Caleb Williams has impressed since taking over for Spencer Rattler in the Texas game. However, Oklahoma’s defense seems to still have the same pitfalls they have always had. They give up way too many big plays. On the road at Baylor is probably the toughest test Oklahoma will face, until Bedlam at the end of the year. However, take Baylor. They may not win, but they will cover.
The Pick: Baylor +5.5