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Coastal Carolina vs Troy Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for Sun Belt Championship Game

Two teams with very different styles are set to battle for Sun Belt Conference supremacy on Saturday as the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers take on the Troy Trojans. This marks the first appearance in the Sun Belt Championship for both schools and will also be the first time two teams not named Louisiana and Appalachian State have battled for the conference title. Despite the majority of college football betting picks siding with the underdog as their Coastal Carolina vs Troy prediction, the point spread has only gotten larger throughout the week.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Coastal Carolina vs Troy prediction for the Sun Belt Championship Game.

Coastal Carolina vs Troy Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

2022 Sun Belt Championship Game
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-2, 6-2 SBC) vs. Troy Trojans (10-2, 7-1 SBC)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 3:30 PM EST
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium — Troy, AL
Coverage: ESPN

After losing only once in its first ten games, Coastal Carolina saw its regular season end in brutal fashion last week in the form of a 40-point loss to James Madison. In the absence of star quarterback Grayson McCall, the Chanticleers’ offense was a total no-show. In addition to the uncertain status of McCall for the Sun Belt Championship, Jamey Chadwell has been linked to several head coaching vacancies around the country. As such, there is a growing belief that this could be his final game with the program.

On the flip side, Troy likely doesn’t need to worry about losing head coach Jon Sumrall as soon as next week. However, if the program continues to replicate the success it has enjoyed this season, it may not be long before bigger schools come calling. Star running back Kimani Vidal and one of the best defenses among the Group of 5 enabled the Trojans to overcome inconsistent quarterback play and earn the right to host the conference title game. Troy enters Saturday’s contest on a nine-game winning streak.

Kimani Vidal Coastal Carolina vs Troy prediction odds college football betting picks Sun Belt Championship Game
Credit: Joey Meredith/Troy Athletics

Coastal Carolina vs Troy College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Coastal Carolina vs Troy can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: CCU: (+260) | TRO: (-320)
Point Spread: CCU: +8.5 (-115) | TRO: -8.5 (-105)
Total: 48.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Sun Belt Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are froFootball Outsiders

TeamOverall FEI (Rk)OFEI (Rk)DFEI (Rk)
Coastal Carolina-.16 (78).39 (44)-.43 (95)
Troy.09 (61)-.28 (84).36 (35)
  • Chanticleers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
  • Six of the Chanticleers’ last seven road games against teams with a winning record at home have gone UNDER the total.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chanticleers’ last six games after allowing 40 points or more in their previous game.
  • Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Sun Belt Conference opponents.
  • Ten of the Trojans’ last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road have gone OVER the total.
  • Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • All of the five previous Coastal Carolina vs Troy head-to-head meetings have gone OVER the total.

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Coastal Carolina vs Troy Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

By far the biggest storyline coming into the Sun Belt Championship Game is the health of Coastal Carolina quarterback, Grayson McCall. Head coach Jamey Chadwell was non-committal when asked whether the three-time SBC Player of the Year would play against Troy earlier in the week. In reality, the Chanticleers’ offense could be up against it regardless of whether McCall is able to return.

Few Group of 5 programs have been able to match what Troy has done defensively this year. The Trojans finished the regular season ranked 35th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Only three opponents hit the 20-point threshold against Jon Sumrall’s defense. Meanwhile, each of the six teams that visited Veterans Memorial Stadium was held to 17 points or less.

In recent weeks, Troy’s offense has leaned heavily on Kimani Vidal and the run game. The sophomore back eclipsed the 1000-yard mark with back-to-back 200-yard games to close out the regular season. Considering that the Chants have allowed 143.1 rushing yards per game defensively, there’s no reason for the Trojans to deviate from a run-heavy offensive attack in this matchup.

UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college football betting Coastal Carolina vs Troy prediction for the Sun Belt Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Troy a 73.9% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Under 48.5 (-110 at Bovada Sportsbook)

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