Handicapping the first day of the Charles Schwab Challenge after a three month lay off is nearly impossible, but I am here to do my best!
Charles Schwab Challenge Betting
Rory McIlroy will probably be the most popular bet of the weekend, and many people consider him the safe bet.
I have never been the biggest fan of betting on Rory. He can be unpredictable and inconsistent (as hard as that is to believe about the #1 golfer in the world.)
Rory is a massive hitter, which doesn’t necessarily play to the strengths of the Colonial Country Club.
Everyone will have to be dialed in with their irons. It’s entirely possible Rory comes out and shows why he’s the best golfer in the world, but with the small return he offers, mixed with my tendency to bet against him, I will not have any money on him this weekend.
Jon Rahm—Top-5: +250 | To Win: +1150
Jon Rahm on the other hand is someone I believe in, no matter what the situation. He has been my pick to win the masters the last two years, and is seemingly always in contention.
The second ranked golfer in the world is a virtual certainty to be at the top of the leader-board. That’s why I’m talking Rahm to place in the top-5 (+250) and will likely put a half a unit on him to win the tournament (+1150)
Webb Simpson—To Win: +2200
This is a pick from my heart. Simpson always seems to find himself floating amongst the leaders until Sunday, and is just unable to make that final day push.
That could all change this weekend. I’m not putting a lot on this bet, but at 22-1 odds to win, Webb Simpson is worth a small bet.
Brooks Koepka—Top-5: +550 | To Win: +2500
Brooks is in a position to make bettors a ton of money. He was not having a great year prior to the pandemic, even placing in the hundreds a couple of times. However, he is still the third ranked golfer in the world, and is the only golfer on the tour who routinely does not practice.
He feeds off of his own confidence and abilities, and just goes out there to play casual golf. That mind-set could come in handy this weekend while other’s minds are occupied with worries of rust or the pressure of competition.
I love Koepka to finish top-5 +550. I am also putting a unit on Koepka to win the tournament at +2500. Brooks could easily win and honestly, a 25-1 pay out in any category is a steal when it comes to Brooks Koepka.
Rickie Fowler—Top-5: +800 | To Win: +3500
Rickie was one of the few lucky members of the PGA tour who was able to compete in televised, meaningful competition over the last 3 months.
He always shows up big in the smaller tournaments, and this years Charles Schwab Challenge has become the biggest of all the small tournaments.
I’m comfortably taking Rickie top-5 (+800) and will throw at least a half unit on him to win (+3500)
Tony Finau—Top-10: +900
Tony has been consistently in contention in nearly every tournament he has played in since rolling his ankle and finishing in the top 10 a few Masters ago.
He is a very steady golfer who never gets too high or too low, and should have a nice weekend on a course that plays to his strengths.
I’m taking Finau top-10 +900
Kevin Na—Top-10: +100
Though I think he has very little shot at a repeat victory, Kevin Na will come out defending his title to the best of his ability.
His consistent play along with the extra incentive of being last years champion will lead him to a top 10 finish.
Get ready to cash Na top-10 (+1000)
Phil Mickelson—Top-5: +2500 | Top-10: +1100
This is a bit of a long shot, but with great odds. Mickelson is a legend and looked solid during his partnership with Tom Brady during The Match 2.
He just needs to come out and have a solid performance and keep himself in contention until Sunday when he can shine.
I like both Mickelson top-5 (+2500) and top 10 (+1100)
Bill Haas—Top-10: +3300
Haas is the lowest ranked golfer I am going to put money on this weekend. He is a very very long shot, but he is part of the group that gets to kick off the tournament, and I think he could surprise everyone and make a name for himself moving forward in the season.
Don’t throw a ton at this bet, but 33-1 is too enticing to pass up.
Jon Rahm—Top-5: +250
The payout is not that great, but I feel incredibly confident in Rahm this weekend.
Charles Schwab Challenge Prop Bets
My only prop bet is victory by 1 stroke (+200).
I think this tournament is gonna have a tight bunch at the top of the leader board. It will likely come down to the last few holes, or someone who is still on the course trying to beat a score that’s already in the clubhouse.
Either way I think whoever wins will win by one stroke.
Day 1 Match-Ups
Brooks Koepka (+105) vs DeChambeau
These two have exchanged words back in forth. They are not in the same group but it will be a very compelling match up.
Koepka just has to beat DeChambeau by one stroke in order to cash (+105)
Rahm (Even) vs Rory
As stated earlier I am a big fan of Rahm and not so much when it comes to Rory. I think Rahm starts the tournament off on a better foot, and cashes for even money.
Spieth (+115) vs Rose
It’s time for the one time top ranked golfer in the world to start working his way back to that position. Spieth will outplay Rose in day one of competition.
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