2018 Stats (Rank)
Total Offense: 4,778 Yards (30th)
Offensive Touchdowns: 28 (28th)
Offensive Plays Per Game: 63.0 (18th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks: 540 (28th)
Rush Attempts: 468 (7th)
Run/Pass Split: Run – 46% | Pass – 54%
Unaccounted for Targets: 188
Unaccounted for Carries: 148
Projected Win Total
The Bills’ over/under currently sits at 7.0, after they went 6-10 last season. Quarterback Josh Allen improved throughout his rookie season, then Buffalo made it a point to improve the offense around him this offseason. With new faces in the receiving corps and the backfield, the Bills are expected to improve slightly this season.
Strength of Schedule
SOS is measured by calculating the fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents to determine who has the easiest and most difficult fantasy schedules (rank #1 has the easiest schedule).
The Bills brought in John Brown and Cole Beasley to complement Josh Allen‘s skill set and give him talent to throw to. They also added tight end Dawson Knox in the draft to fully change the look of the Buffalo receiving corps in 2019. Brown and Foster will be the deep threats for Allen’s strong arm, which means they will have big weeks, but this team will still be among the highest in rushing attempts. Foster has the highest ADP, at WR68. Brown is close behind, at WR73, while Zay Jones and Beasley are WR81 and 82. Much of Allen’s fantasy value will come from his legs, which has him at QB21 with upside.
Despite having the third-worst run-blocking line, Buffalo was among the top of the league in rushing attempts. The Bills brought in some talent up front in free agency and the draft to help out their running backs. Expected to remain the lead back, but share the role more, will be LeSean McCoy. He had zero room to run last season, which was the biggest reason for his struggles. McCoy currently has an ADP of RB39, while iron man Frank Gore is just RB74. Gore is likely undervalued, like he has been for the past several years. At this point, we need to stop expecting a nosedive in his on-field performance. Him and McCoy will serve as mentors for rookie Devin Singletary, who is current going before Gore, at RB52. While his role will likely be very limited to begin the season, we could see the youthful back earn snaps.
It’s worth mentioning Josh Allen again in the rushing section, since he had 631 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in 12 games. Projected over a full season, he would have gotten 841 yards and about 11 touchdowns. If he continues to have success running the ball, it will open up running lanes for others in the backfield with him.