The second AFC Divisional Round matchup this weekend features two teams separated by a double-digit point spread. The NFL betting market is heavily in favor of the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs as they begin their title defense quest against the Cleveland Browns. While the Chiefs look to continue on as the favorites to repeat, the Browns will aim to spring a major NFL Playoffs upset for the second straight week.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and predictions for the Browns vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs game on Sunday afternoon.
NFL Odds, NFL Picks, and NFL Props | Browns vs Chiefs
Browns vs Chiefs Game Info
Cleveland Browns (12-5, 6-3 Away) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-2, 6-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 117, 2020
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Coverage: CBS
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Browns vs Chiefs NFL Odds + NFL Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Opening Lines: Chiefs -10; O/U 55.5
Moneyline: CLE: (+350) | KC: (-500)
Spread: CLE: +10 (-115) | KC: -10 (-105)
Total: 57.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
Browns vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Overview
The Browns surprised a lot of people with their convincing win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in last week’s Wild Card matchup. For their troubles, they earned a date with the defending champs, who calmly won 14 games during the regular season to win the AFC’s top seed. The Chiefs may have had a bye week to rest up, but the Browns certainly come into this game with nothing to lose as large underdogs. It’s rare to see a double-digit NFL betting line in the postseason at all, let alone in the Divisional Round. We also get an intriguing contrast of offensive styles in this Kevin Stefanski-Andy Reid coaching matchup.
Browns Overview
The Browns enter the Divisional Round hot, having won seven of their last nine games. It’s fair to ask whether or not the NFL betting market has undervalued Cleveland’s offense during the latter stages of the season. For as ugly as the Browns’ adjusted metrics are on defense and special teams, they do have the 9th-best offensive efficiency rating on the season (Football Outsiders). Baker Mayfield has looked sharper than expected and was on point again last week with 263 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Of course, having a running back tandem like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will make any QB’s job that much easier. Cleveland will need to run the ball effectively and control the clock if they are to have any chance on Sunday. The Browns shaky secondary figures to be a sitting duck on the other side of the ball.
Chiefs Overview
Kansas City may be laying ten points on the NFL betting line for this game, but it’s worth noting the Chiefs haven’t covered a spread since early November. With that said, there are reasons galore why this spread is so large. Patrick Mahomes should have no trouble dissecting the Cleveland defense. The Browns have no one capable of covering the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Even with rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire a nonparticipant at Thursday’s practice, there’s no reason to panic over the Chiefs backfield. That’s exactly why the team signed veteran Le’Veon Bell when he hit the open market earlier this season. Defensively, expect coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to send a myriad of looks at Baker Mayfield. If Kansas City can hold up against the run, they’ll figure to have little trouble holding the Browns in check.
Browns vs Chiefs Betting Trends
- Browns 2020-21 Betting Trends: 7-10 ATS; 10-7 to the Over
- Chiefs 2020-21 Betting Trends: 7-9 ATS; 8-8 to the Over
- The Browns are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The Browns are 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with an 80% or better winning percentage.
- The total has hit the over in five of the Browns’ last seven games.
- The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
- Over the last ten years, the Under has gone 32-9 in Chiefs home games against teams allowing more than 23.5 points per game.
- Road teams are 3-0 ATS in the last three head-to-head meetings between the Browns and Chiefs.
- The total has hit the over in six of the last nine games between the Browns and Chiefs.
Browns vs Chiefs Stats
- Cleveland is averaging 26.8 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 12 in the NFL).
- Cleveland is surrendering 26.8 PPG this season (No. 23 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is averaging 29.6 PPG this season (Tied for No. 4 in the NFL).
- Kansas City is surrendering 22.6 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).
Monkey Knife Fight NFL Playoffs Props | Browns vs Chiefs
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire NFL Playoffs Divisional Round slate. Here is one in particular that I like for the Browns vs Chiefs game.
The high over/under NFL betting line of 57.5 suggests plenty of offense between the Browns and Chiefs on Sunday. My personal handicap suggests the same. With this NFL props contest, I’m looking to play over on the yardage totals for a pair of offensive stars.
Tight end Travis Kelce is arguably the favorite target for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Against a porous Browns secondary, I don’t see Kelce having too much trouble exceeding 90 yards receiving, a mark that he has hit in three of the last four games he played in from weeks 12-15. Furthermore, the Browns were near the bottom of the league defending the tight end position specifically this season.
Concerning the other half of this NFL betting prop, Nick Chubb is clearly the lead option over Kareem Hunt in the NFL’s best backfield. Not only will the Browns game plan likely involve running the ball and limiting the number of possessions the Chiefs get, but teams have run with success against the Kansas City defense this season. The Chiefs ranked as the 31st defense in adjusted efficiency against the run. That weakness could leave them vulnerable to being exposed by Chubb in this matchup.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3.5x your buy-in amount.
Browns vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Prediction
We’ve seen very little point spread movement throughout the week. While occasional deviations from the opening Chiefs -10 have popped up across the NFL betting market, the line has clung tightly to the opening number. Concerning the total, it’s been one-way traffic to the Over with the opening line of 55.5 rising up a full two points.
While my initial contrarian bettor lean here would be to put a full ten points in my pocket with the Browns, the public betting percentages for this game suggest otherwise. According to oddsFire, 59% of bets for this AFC Divisional showdown are on Cleveland, indicating a square dog. NFL betting history tells us that square dog picks don’t tend to pan out well. With the spread being so large, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the contrarian play is actually to lay double-digit points with the defending champs at home.
Am I rushing to back Kansas City ATS here? Absolutely not. But I do see a reasonable path to a wide margin of victory here. Patrick Mahomes is too good for the Browns secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense has the personnel and scheme to thoroughly confuse Baker Mayfield. I’d encourage bettors looking to back K.C. to keep watch for any 9.5’s that pop up between now and kickoff. My best bet for this game though is to go against what is now an inflated total.
Browns vs Chiefs Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 33, Browns 20
Betting Picks: Chiefs -10 (-105) and Under 57.5 (-115) at Bovada Sportsbook
