For the second time in 20 days, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will clash on Sunday. Once again, this second meeting will prove critical to the AFC East Division race. For the Patriots, a win might also be necessary when it comes to their chances of clinching a first-round bye in the playoffs. The NFL betting odds are projecting another low-scoring, defensive-minded battle between these two teams. They also list the home team as a short favorite ahead of this Bills vs Patriots rivalry game.
Bills vs Patriots Week 16 NFL Betting Preview
NFL Regular Season — Week 16
Buffalo Bills (8-6, 4-3 Away) vs. New England Patriots (9-5, 3-4 Home)
Date: Sunday, Dec. 26, 2021
Time: 1 p.m. EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
Coverage: Click here for the stream
Buffalo Bills Preview
The Bills certainly hope that last week’s home win over the Carolina Panthers officially put an end to a stretch that saw them lose four of six. Of course, one of those losses came to the same Patriots team they’ll face on Sunday. On a cold, windy night in Western New York, each of Buffalo’s two primary flaws was exposed. On offense, the Bills still cannot run the ball effectively. Although Devin Singletary did well to average 3.9 yards per carry last week, it came against one of the worst run defenses in football. Establishing a rushing attack will be paramount to Buffalo’s chances of winning as NFL betting underdogs this week. Not only will it help take pressure off of QB Josh Allen, but it will also help to wear down the stout New England defense.
The Bills’ other glaring weakness has been their inability to stop the run defensively. No one will soon forget the fact that the Patriots only attempted three total passes in their win over Buffalo three weeks ago. While the weather conditions certainly played a part in that play-calling maneuver, the Bills’ inability to stop the run at any point enabled New England to keep right on pounding it up the middle. While they may have picked up a win last week, Buffalo still surrendered over 150 yards on the ground to the Panthers.
New England Patriots Preview
The Patriots forgot to show up to play last Saturday night following a Week 14 bye. The Indianapolis Colts got off to a strong start and held on down the stretch. The loss snapped a seven-game NFL betting ATS cover streak for the Patriots that dated all the way back to October. Nonetheless, Bill Belichick’s squad remains one game up in the AFC East Division standings. A season-sweep of the Bills on Sunday would allow New England to clinch its 17th division crown in the last 19 years.
Aside from a pair of interceptions, rookie quarterback Mac Jones played very well in last week’s loss. As the Patriots fell behind early, they were forced to pass more than they typically would prefer. Jones finished one yard shy of 300 and also hit tight end, Hunter Henry, for a pair of touchdowns. After missing last week with a hamstring injury, lead RB Damien Harris is widely expected to be back on Sunday. Of course, bettors should anticipate both Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden being mixed into the rushing attack as well. The Patriots lead the league in both scoring defense and adjusted defensive efficiency. Although they likely won’t have the help of 30 MPH winds this time, one has to believe Belichick has plenty of unique looks ready to throw at Allen and the Bills’ offensive front.
Bills vs Patriots NFL Betting Odds and Spread
Moneyline: BUF: (+105) | NE: (-125)
Spread: BUF: +2 (-110) | NE: -2 (-110)
Total: 43.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
Public (Spread) Betting via Action Network: BUF: (49%) | NE: (51%)
Bills vs Patriots NFL Betting Trends
- Four of the Bills’ last six games have gone over the total.
- The total has gone over in 11 of the Bills’ last 16 road games.
- Patriots are 7-1 both straight up and ATS in their last eight games.
- Four of the Patriots’ last five home games have gone over the total.
- Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven head-to-head matchups against the Patriots on the road.
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Bills vs Patriots Stats
- Buffalo is averaging 28.1 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 4 in the NFL).
- Buffalo is surrendering 17.4 PPG this season (T-No. 2 in the NFL).
- New England is averaging 26.2 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).
- New England is surrendering 16.2 PPG this season (No. 1 in the NFL).
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
This Bills vs Patriots NFL betting prediction uses NumberFire’s game projections. They give New England a 63.1% chance to win this Week 16 matchup.