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Bills vs Chiefs NFL Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks Against the Spread for Divisional Round

The second round of the NFL Playoffs concludes on Sunday night with the second AFC Divisional Round game. In a rematch of last year’s conference championship game, the 3-seed Buffalo Bills will face off with the 2-seed Kansas City Chiefs. After the Chiefs got the better of last year’s playoff matchup to advance to the Super Bowl, Buffalo responded with a blowout win early on in this regular season. Many NFL betting analysts view this game as a Super Bowl play-in considering that the winner will be favored in the conference title game next weekend. Current NFL odds have the home side as a very small favorite for Bills vs Chiefs picks against the spread.

The following Bills vs Chiefs NFL betting preview will provide you with the current odds, betting trends and NFL picks for the AFC Divisional Round matchup, along with a stream link to watch games all postseason long.

Tyreek Hill NFL betting odds trends Bills vs Chiefs prediction picks against the spread
Credit: Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Bills vs Chiefs NFL Playoffs Betting Preview

NFL Postseason — AFC Divisional Game
Buffalo Bills (12-6, 5-3 Away) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-5, 8-2 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 23, 2021
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
Coverage: Click here for the stream

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills’ Wild Card Round game against the division-rival New England Patriots turned into a laugher very quickly. In fact, the Bills played a perfect game offensively as they scored a touchdown on every single one of their possessions. Buffalo continues to be a heavily-supported team at the NFL betting window by sharp bettors and the general public alike. While Sean McDermott’s team ranked at or near the top in several statistical categories this season, the one glaring question that this team has yet to answer is whether or not they can achieve success against quality competition. While winning a second straight division title is impressive, the Bills did so playing the easiest strength of schedule of any team.

While quarterback Josh Allen remains the focal point of Buffalo’s offense, he now appears to have a complimentary run game. Devin Singletary has averaged over four yards per carry in each of the last three games. He and Allen combined for over 140 yards rushing in last week’s NFL betting playoff win. Meanwhile, Allen continues to spread the ball around beyond star wideout Stefon Diggs. Last week saw tight end Dawson Knox lead all pass-catchers in yardage to go along with his two touchdowns. So long as Allen makes good decisions with where to throw the ball, few opponents have proven capable of slowing down the Bills’ offense all season.

Defensively, the Bills have done well to mask the absence of top cover corner, Tre’Davious White. However, they have yet to pace a potent passing offense since he was lost for the season to a torn ACL. Generating a pass rush early and often figures to be key as the remaining Buffalo defensive backs will be at a major disadvantage against the Chiefs’ star receivers.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Chiefs got off to a slow start in last week’s eventual Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fortunately, the defense was able to pitch a shutout long enough for Andy Reid’s offense to figure things out. Once Kansas City finally found the end zone, there was no looking back. Needless to say, the Chiefs’ NFL betting loss to the Bills all the way back in Week 5 feels like a distant memory at this point. K.C. has won 11 of their 13 games played since and come into Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round matchup having won 10 of their last 11 overall.

After the offense looked broken early on in the season, the Chiefs have certainly hit their stride recently. Patrick Mahomes has led scoring outputs of 34 points or more in five of the last six games. Last week’s 400-yard, five-TD performance was the version of Mahomes that the NFL betting public has grown accustomed to ever since he took the league by storm a few years ago. While the Chiefs will be tasked with beating a Bills pass defense that led the league in adjusted efficiency this season, none of Buffalo’s opponents had anywhere near the weapons that Kansas City does. 

Along with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, running back Jerick McKinnon stepped up huge for the Chiefs last week. Reports indicate that starting RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not have a snap count as he makes his return to action on Sunday. Defensively, the key for Steve Spagnuolo’s unit in this NFL betting matchup figures to be getting pressure on Josh Allen. If the Chiefs can force Allen into a poor turnover early, bettors can count on him being flustered for the rest of the game.

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Bills vs Chiefs Betting Odds and NFL Picks Against the Spread

NFL betting odds for Bills vs Chiefs are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: BUF: (+105) | KC: (-125)
Spread: BUF: +1.5 (-110) | KC: -1.5 (-110)
Total: 54.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via Action Network: BUF: (44%) | KC: (56%)

Bills vs Chiefs NFL Betting Trends

  • Bills are 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The over is 12-2-1 in the Bills’ last 15 road games when on a winning streak of three games or more.
  • Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games with John Hussey as the referee.
  • Four of the last five Bills vs Chiefs head-to-head matchups played in Kansas City have gone over the total.

Bills vs Chiefs Stats

  • Buffalo is averaging 29.4 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 3 in the NFL).
  • Buffalo is surrendering 17.0 PPG this season (No. 1 in the NFL).
  • Kansas City is averaging 29.0 PPG this season (No. 4 in the NFL).
  • Kansas City is surrendering 21.4 PPG this season (No. 10 in the NFL).

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

This Bills vs Chiefs NFL betting prediction uses NumberFire’s game projections. They give Kansas City a 57.9% chance to win this AFC Divisional Round matchup.

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