Right now, much of the sports world is laser-focused on college basketball conference tournaments. However, for bettors, it is never wise to limit your options. While conference tournaments are busy dominating the sports headlines and household TV sets, the NBA quietly has a loaded 10-game slate lined up for Friday. Such volume is certain to yield some profitable betting opportunities in the NBA props market. The following article offers three of the best NBA player prop bets for the March 11th slate.
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Best NBA Betting Player Props for Tonight, 3/11
Dejounte Murray Over 8.5 Assists (-143)
San Antonio Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray continues to put up gaudy numbers on a seemingly nightly basis. He has been just a few stats away from recording four straight triple-doubles to begin the month of March. On Wednesday night, Murray came exactly one rebound shy of achieving the feat as he posted 25 points and a whopping 12 assists.
Since the All-Star break, the Murray has now dished at least eight assists in five of six games played. Three of those efforts saw him post double-digit totals. On the season overall, the 25-year-old is averaging 9.4 dimes per game. This mark comes in nearly one full assist above tonight’s NBA player props total of 8.5.
Tonight sees the Spurs host a top-10 defensive efficiency opponent in the Utah Jazz. However, Murray has already proven capable of producing against solid defensive teams. The near-miss triple-double he achieved just two nights ago came against a sturdy Toronto defense. From a statistical standpoint, Murray would need to come up over one assist short relative to his per-game average on the season to stay under the NBA betting line.
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Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (-152)
While an NBA player props assist total of 3.5 for Pascal Siakam might make sense based on recent performance, it comes in far below his season average of 5.0 per game. Of course, a revolving door of Siakam’s Toronto Raptors teammates going in and out of the lineup has impacted the team’s offense in recent games.
Although ‘Spicy P’ came up short of this NBA props total in the most recent game, a total of three assists saw him barely finish under the number. With primary point guard Fred VanVleet returning, Siakam figures to perform closer to his usual production than when he had to serve as a primary scorer. In actuality, having VanVleet back on the floor should prove beneficial.
It’s also worth pointing out that the current market consensus line of 3.5 assists is one full assist lower than what the NBA picks market was listing for Siakam earlier this week. Regression to the mean is also expected sooner than later. After totaling three assists or less in three of the last four games, Siakam should wind up closer to his per-game average tonight. The inevitable result of this positive regression would be Siakam going over this low NBA player props line.
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Two games into his time with the Washington Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis has made quite an impact in the scoring column. Despite only playing 21 and 26 minutes in his first two games with the team, Porzingis totaled 25 and 19 points, respectively. Unfortunately, he has yet to show up in the rebounding column relative to his usual production.
Porzingis managed five boards in his team debut on Sunday but got outworked inside on Wednesday night and had but a single rebound in the game. Considering that the 26-year-old is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game on the season overall, one has to believe that positive regression is on the way for the Wizards’ new center.
One facet that should help those who bet over the NBA player props total of 6.5 boards for Porzingis this evening is Washington’s opposition. The Los Angeles Lakers have struggled mightily on the glass this season, among other areas. L.A. has secured only 48.6% of available rebounds on the season. This mark only ranks 24th in the NBA in Rebound Rate. Considering the Wizards’ own struggles on the boards this season, the opportunity is certainly there for Porzingis to assert himself and make an impact.