College Football Championship Weekend has arrived, although bettors are not limited to just the ten conference title games this year. The crazy scheduling that played out over the course of the 2020 season has actually resulted in a sizable Champ Week slate. The SEC and Big Ten will be in action, and we also have a game to decide the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. Oh, what a time to be alive! Here are my best college football picks for Week 16.
Last Week: 2-1
Season Record: 21-22
Week 16 College Football Picks
All odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
UAB vs Marshall
It seems like forever ago that Marshall was undefeated, ranked, and regarded as Conference USA’s overwhelming favorite. After being shut out by Rice at home two weeks ago, all of those things are no more. The Thundering Herd have had an additional week to let that loss sink in ahead of hosting UAB in the Conference USA Championship Game.
Speaking of UAB, they beat that same Rice team by five on the road this past Saturday. That win snapped a two-game losing skid and also came in the Blazers’ first game since October. The return of QB Tyler Johnston III was the big storyline, and UAB will be glad to have him on Friday night against a suffocating Marshall defense that allows an FBS-low 13.0 points per game.
**Note: This is a Friday night game**
UAB vs Marshall College Football Picks
The opening line for the C-USA championship of Marshall -7 has taken a dive. Both the win over rice and the return of Johnston are the likely motives behind sharps backing of UAB. The Blazers’ defense is solid, but anyone who thinks Marshall QB Grant Wells is going to have another five-INT performance is crazy. I love the value on the Thundering Herd in this spot.
College Football Picks: Marshall -5
Air Force vs Army
On the heels of a 15-0 victory in the Army-Navy Game, the Black Knights are now tasked with refocusing their attention quickly on Air Force. This game got rescheduled from early November and will now take place with the heightened drama of the winner claiming the 2020 Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
Air Force went 2-2 in Mountain West play this year but couldn’t have asked for a much tougher draw. The two losses came to Boise State and San Jose State, who will battle for the MWC title this weekend. Meanwhile, Army has only had to play three road games all year. Outside of Cincinnati, none of the Black Knights’ opponents this year stand out.
Air Force vs Army College Football Picks
While Navy has admittedly improved greatly as the season has gone on, Air Force did dismantle the Midshipmen 40-7 back in October. Sharp action has been on Air Force in a game that opened as a pick’em. I’ll gladly join in on the fun at an even field goal or better.
College Football Picks: Air Force -3
Missouri vs Mississippi State
I’m back for another go-around with Missouri in our Week 16 college football picks, even after they let us down as two-touchdown underdogs last week against Georgia. I was actually surprised to see that this line has barely shifted from the opening number of Missouri -1 given that it would appear to be a buy-low spot on the Tigers. Although I suppose when you lose by 35 points at home, it’s fair for the betting market to be down on you.
Georgia bottled up Larry Rountree III in a big way last Saturday, holding the star RB to just 16 yards on 14 carries. I highly doubt the other Bulldogs from Mississippi State will be able to contain him to that degree. MS State has played both Ole Miss and Auburn tough in their last two times out. I’m still far from sold on quarterback Will Rogers though, even if he is the better fit in Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense.
Missouri vs Mississippi State College Football Picks
How a five-win Missouri team is such a small favorite against a two-win Mississippi State team is beyond me. Eli Drinkwitz has done a tremendous job in year one at Mizzou, while the Bulldogs still have more questions than answers with Mike Leach. I won’t think twice about laying the point and a half.
College Football Picks: Missouri -1.5
Bonus College Football Picks: Boise State vs San Jose State
Despite an unblemished record, San Jose State is catching nearly a full touchdown in their Mountain West Championship Game matchup against Boise State. Many didn’t think the Spartans would even be here, and one could argue that the program turnaround is a year ahead of schedule. SJSU has had to overcome crazy virus restrictions but has kept right on winning.
Quarterback Nick Starkel’s SEC experience will serve him well against perennial Mountain West powerhouse Boise State. The Broncos haven’t shown me anything to believe they are the vastly superior team. I’ll take the points with the Spartans.
College Football Picks: San Jose State +6.5
