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Baylor vs UCSB Prediction and NCAA Tournament March Madness Expert Picks

In a First Round NCAA Tournament game, the (3) Baylor Bears will face off with the (14) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in the South Region. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting odds, March Madness expert picks, betting trends and KenPom Rankings, then give our Baylor vs UCSB prediction. 

Baylor vs UCSB Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks

2023 NCAA Tournament
No. 3 Baylor Bears (22-10) vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (27-7)
Date: Friday, March 17, 2022
Time: 1:30 PM EST
Venue: Ball Arena — Denver, CO
Coverage: TNT

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Baylor vs UCSB March Madness Betting Odds

All college basketball betting odds for Baylor vs UCSB can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.

Moneyline: BAY: (-600) | UCSB: (+450)
Point Spread: BAY: -10.5 (-110) | UCSB: +10.5 (-110)
Total: 143 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

KenPom Rankings | Bracketology

KenPom Rankings are from


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  • Baylor is 16-15-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
  • UCSB is 20-10-2 ATS this season.
  • With 4+ days of rest, Baylor is 5-4 straight up while UCSB is 10-2.
  • The OVER is 17-15 for Baylor this season.
  • The OVER is 20-12 for UCSB this season.

Baylor vs UCSB Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks

While this is a matchup that looks incredibly lopsided in the March Madness betting odds, momentum is a real thing. Santa Barbara has won seven straight games while Baylor lost four of its past six games. However, all of those losses are against tournament teams while UCSB’s seven wins are not.

The offense of Baylor will likely be too much for UCSB to handle. Talent-wise, the Bears simply outclass their opponents. They also have a coaching advantage and tournament advantage.

The Achilles heel for Baylor is on the defensive side of the floor, and it will be the reason they lose in the NCAA Tournament, whenever that may be. It won’t be in the First Round, however. It’s tough to trust Baylor’s defense, so we are betting this game total to hit the over.

Our college basketball betting Baylor vs UCSB prediction tonight will be the point total hits the OVER at BetUS

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Baylor a 90.4% chance to win.

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