Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Trends, Starting Pitchers and Betting Odds for MLB Playoffs ALCS Game 5

The best-of-seven American League Championship Series has been whittled down to a best-of-three. The Houston Astros offense erupted in the final frame of Tuesday night’s ALCS Game 4 to even up the series with the Boston Red Sox at two games apiece. While we are now ensured of the action shifting back to Houston, there is still one more game on tap at Fenway Park. Both sides will look to gain the upper hand tonight. The MLB betting odds give the home team a slight edge to do so in this Astros vs Red Sox Game 5 matchup.

This MLB betting preview for Astros vs Red Sox ALCS Game 5 includes game info, projected starting pitchers, betting odds, trends and a prediction for this evening’s postseason matchup.

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview and Prediction | MLB Playoffs Game 5

ALCS Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
Houston Astros (95-67, 44-37 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (92-70, 49-32 Home)
Date: Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2021
Time: 5:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Fenway Park — Boston, MA
Coverage: FS1

Astros vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

Astros: Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA)
Red Sox: Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16)

Houston Astros Preview

After being held in check for the majority of Games 2 and 3, everything changed for the Astros offense in the ninth inning of last night’s Game 4. With the game tied at two, Houston erupted for seven runs in the top half of the final inning to run away with the win and even up the ALCS at two games apiece. The fact that all of the seven runs scored with two outs in the inning makes it all the more impressive. Carlos Correa got the 9th inning started off with a double. He scored four batters later on a base hit by Jason Castro. Michael Brantley would later deliver the big blow with a three-RBI double to right-center stretching Houston’s lead to 6-2. 

Correa, Brantley and Yordan Alvarez paced the Astros with two hits apiece for the game. Prior to the final frame, Houston’s two runs came via homers by Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. On the mound, starter Zack Greinke was chased early, but the Astros bullpen would not surrender another run over the final 7.2 innings. Dusty Baker will go back to Game 1 starter, Framber Valdez, in Wednesday’s MLB betting Game 5 matchup. The Red Sox chased Valdez quickly in the series-opener as well, tagging him for three runs on six hits in 2.2 innings. Despite the common theme of Astros starting pitching struggling in this ALCS, Houston has found a way to split the first four games.

Boston Red Sox Preview

Much like Games 2 and 3, the Red Sox wasted no time in getting the bats going on Tuesday. Xander Bogaerts clobbered a two-run homer in the first inning, scoring Rafael Devers on the play. However, unlike the two MLB betting wins prior, Boston failed to add to their early lead. The Red Sox did not score again, with their potent lineup being flummoxed by the Astros bullpen the rest of the way. Bogaerts had two of the team’s five hits on the game. Kike Hernandez continued his postseason hitting streak, but the rest of the Red Sox lineup stayed quiet.

The Game 4 defeat was certainly not the fault of starter Nick Pivetta, who allowed just one run on two hits over five strong innings. After receiving back-to-back quality starts, manager Alex Cora will go back to his Game 1 starter tonight in Chris Sale. It hasn’t exactly been pretty for the veteran southpaw during the playoffs, as he has yielded six runs on nine hits in just 3.2 innings pitched. While he failed to make it out of the third inning in Game 1 of this MLB betting series, Sale was at least able to limit the damage. The other interesting development regarding Boston’s pitching is the fact that Nathan Eovaldi pitched in relief during yesterday’s game. How that impacts the starting rotation should this ALCS go a full seven games remains to be seen.

Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Odds

MLB betting odds for Astros vs Red Sox are taken from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: HOU: (+105) | BOS: (-125)
Run Line: HOU: +1.5 (-185) | BOS: -1.5 (+150)
Total: 9.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting via Action Network: HOU: (44%) | BOS: (56%)

Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends

• Each of the Astros’ last seven games has gone over the total.
• Astros are just 2-6 SU in their last eight road games.
• Each of the Red Sox’ last seven games has gone over the total.
• Red Sox are 10-4 SU in their last 14 home games.
• The last six Astros vs Red Sox head-to-head matchups have all gone over the total.

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 Astros vs Red Sox Stats

• Houston is averaging 5.39 RPG this season (No. 1 in the MLB).
• Houston is surrendering 4.14 RPG this season (T-No. 9 in the MLB).
• Boston is averaging 5.19 runs per game (RPG) this season (No. 4 in the MLB).
• Boston is surrendering 4.64 RPG this season (No. 18 in the MLB).

Astros vs Red Sox Weather Report

Status: Clear
Temperature: 68℉
Precipitation: 1%
Humidity: 57%
Wind: 4 MPH (blowing left to right)

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction

The Astros vs Red Sox MLB betting prediction uses NumberFire’s probability model. They give Houston a 52.6% chance to win Game 5 of this ALCS matchup.