This inter-division SEC showdown features a three-score spread in favor of the home team. Here are the Arkansas vs Florida predictions and college football picks for Week 11 in the NCAAF season.
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Arkansas vs Florida Predictions
Odds courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook
Arkansas came through as a moneyline underdog last week, and I like them once again in this week’s college football picks. With that being said, Florida is coming off an impressive victory of their own right against Georgia. There has been limited line movement to this point, with Florida moving from an 18-point favorite down to -17.5 at Bovada Sportsbook.
The big headline to come out of the build-up for this SEC showdown is the positive coronavirus test for Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman. As a result, he won’t be on the Razorbacks sideline this week. Handicappers can debate just how impactful a head coach’s presence is to a team, but Arkansas should be in good hands with defensive coordinator Barry Odom serving as the interim coach. Saturday also marks the return to Gainesville for Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks, who transferred from Florida in the offseason. The Gators secondary has proven vulnerable, and Franks will look to build on what has been a strong season thus far.
On the other side of the ball, the Razorbacks’ defense will have its hands plenty full. Kyle Trask and the talent-laden Gators’ offense took it to the vaunted Georgia defense last week. Trask’s final stat line of 474 yards passing and four touchdowns is unlike any for a QB facing Georgia in recent memory. With so many weapons, it’s simply impossible to shut down the Gators attack. The best the Razorbacks can hope for on Saturday is to limit the damage.
College Football Picks: Arkansas +17.5
Florida will get theirs, but I believe Franks and the Razorbacks can score on the Gators defense as well. Texas A&M stands out as a common opponent between the two teams. Arkansas managed to earn a backdoor cover in their loss to the Aggies in a game that featured a similar point spread. Given that I rank the Aggies defense higher than Florida’s at this point in the season, this only reinforces a play on Arkansas. Add in the fact that this game could be a potential letdown for the Gators after last week’s huge win, Arkansas catching 17.5 points in this spot is the way to go.
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