The 2023 Mountain West Tournament has been nothing short of electric. On Saturday, the conference will crown its champion as the 3-seed Utah State Aggies clash with the 1-seed San Diego State Aztecs in the title game. This marks the fourth time in the last five years that the Aggies and Aztecs will meet in the conference championship game in Las Vegas. The Utah State vs San Diego State odds and college basketball betting picks suggest that this will be another tightly-contested affair.
The following game preview provides the college basketball betting odds, trends and KenPom ratings before sharing our official Utah State vs San Diego State prediction for the Mountain West Tournament Championship Game.
Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
Mountain West Tournament Final
(3) Utah State Aggies (26-7, 13-5 MWC) vs. (1) San Diego State Aztecs (26-6, 15-3 MWC)
Time: 6 p.m. EST
Venue: Thomas & Mack Center — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: CBS
Utah State Aggies Preview
Entering the Mountain West Tournament, Utah State was considered to be squarely on the March Madness bubble. Needless to say, the Aggies have now removed all doubt as to whether they belong in the field of 68. After a convincing win over New Mexico, Utah State rallied back from a halftime deficit to earn Quad I win over Boise State in the semifinals on Friday. Ranked 18th nationally in the College Basketball NET, Ryan Odom’s team is now set to play for an MWC title for the fourth time in five years.
San Diego State Aztecs Preview
San Diego State came into the Mountain West Tournament as one of only two teams in the conference assured of a March Madness bid. Of course, as the top seed, the Aztecs have their sights set on capturing their third conference title in the last six years. After pulling out a close quarterfinal win over Colorado State on Thursday, Brian Dutcher’s squad was able to dominate San Jose State on Friday to reach the championship game for the sixth year in a row
Utah State vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds
College basketball betting odds for Utah State vs San Diego State can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: USU: (+109) | SDSU: (-129)
Point Spread: USU: +2 (-110) | SDSU: -2 (-110)
Total: 137.5 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
College Basketball KenPom Ratings
The following table displays the KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings for the two teams involved in Saturday’s Mountain West Tournament Final. In addition to overall efficiency margin, offensive, defensive and tempo ratings are included.
| Team | Overall AdjEM (Rk) | AdjO (Rk) | AdjD (Rk) | AdjT (Rk) |
| Utah State | +19.10 (18) | 118.7 (12) | 99.6 (68) | 68.9 (107) |
| San Diego State | +20.05 (15) | 112.6 (55) | 92.6 (10) | 66.1 (253) |
Utah State vs San Diego State College Basketball Betting Trends
- Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
- Nine of the Aggies’ last 13 neutral site games have gone OVER the total.
- Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
- Each of the Aztecs’ last seven games overall has stayed UNDER the total.
- Betting favorites are 5-2 ATS in the last seven Utah State vs San Diego State head-to-head meetings.
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Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks
San Diego State emerged victorious in both regular-season meetings against Utah State. The Aztecs were able to build a big lead early in the first matchup and cruised to a 10-point home win. The second game was much closer as the Aggies battled back from a double-digit halftime deficit. Despite being held to just 19 points in the second half, SDSU was able to escape Logan with a two-point victory.
It’s no secret that beating a team three times in one season is a very difficult feat to accomplish. This is especially true when dealing with a team that is as talented and statistically sound as Utah State. One thing that really stands out is how the Aggies are able to win games in multiple ways.
Against New Mexico on Thursday, forward Taylor Funk’s three-point shooting carried them to victory. While Funk wasn’t able to replicate those numbers on Friday against Boise State, he didn’t need to as the backcourt trio of Max Shulga, Steven Ashworth and Sean Bairstow fueled the Aggies’ comeback and eventual victory.
Of course, any and all San Diego State opponents know full well just how tough it is to score. Last night, Utah State was able to speed up the game in the second half and get the Broncos out of their comfort zone. While the Aztecs also prefer to play at a slower tempo, they have better perimeter athletes like Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammell and thus aren’t necessarily afraid of teams who try to run. Consistently solving the SDSU defense is next to impossible.
While the first matchup between these two teams featured 160 total points, a big part of that was due to San Diego State shooting the ball at such a high clip and generating offense off of turnovers. With this being the third game in as many days for both teams, a slower, half-court affair seems more likely to unfold.
UNDER THE TOTAL will be our official college basketball betting Utah State vs San Diego State prediction for the Mountain West Tournament Championship Game.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives San Diego State a 57.8% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: UNDER 137.5 (-115 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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