NFL Conference Championship weekend is here! The football betting season might be ending soon, but there are still three games left to pick your spots and win some dough (make that four if the Pro Bowl is your thing).
With just two games to handicap this weekend, the likelihood of finding numerical edges is slimmer. However, with a multitude of player and game props listed at most sportsbooks, there are still plenty of ways to have action.
Without further ado, here are my favorite bets and player prop bets for the AFC and NFC title games.
AFC Championship
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Date: Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Coverage: CBS
Moneyline: TEN: (+250) | KC: (-320)
Spread: TEN: +7.5 (-110) | KC: -7.5 (-110)
Total: 52.5 – Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via OddsFire: TEN: (45%) | KC: (55%)
Picks
Total: OVER 52.5
The decision to bet the over on the AFC Championship total comes down to trusting the offenses more than the defense for both teams. Patrick Mahomes is a wizard. It helps when you have stud targets in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and more lined up all over the field. Last week’s 51 points might be too much to ask for, but I certainly see the mid-to-high-30’s as a very realistic possibility. Assuming Kansas City gets it rolling on offense, the onus will be on the Titans to score to keep up. If the recent heroics of Derrick Henry are any indication, this won’t be the style of game they are necessarily looking to play. But if they must play it, I wouldn’t put it past Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and Co. to provide some offensive fireworks of their own. Tennessee quietly averaged 25 points per game in the regular season, and that includes a couple of lackluster showings prior to Tannehill taking over at QB. Add that to the 29.5 points per game average of the Chiefs and a 67-point total in the teams’ first meeting this season, and it is my side of choice for Sunday’s game rematch.
Derrick Henry: 125+ Rushing Yards (+130)
Betting on any single player to go over 125 yards rushing in a single game sure seems risky, but with the run Derrick Henry has been on in this postseason, how can you not look to back him? Henry followed up his 182-yard performance in the Wild Card Round with another 195 yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week. Those defenses ranked first and fourth overall in adjusted efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. The Chiefs rank a bit lower, at 14th overall, and specifically, 29th against the run. This game may be played at a much more rapid pace than Tennessee’s first two playoff games, but I’m not worried about that affecting Henry’s yardage. In the first meeting between the teams this season, a 35-32 shootout win for the Titans, Henry piled up 188 yards. If the Titans are to continue their magical run, they will need another vintage Henry performance this Sunday.
Tyreek Hill 100+ Receiving Yards (+140)
The weak link of the Tennessee defense is the secondary. Despite having some notable names in Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, the Titans ranked just 21st in adjusted pass defense (Football Outsiders). The Chiefs had no trouble exposing that secondary in the regular season showdown, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards, including 157 to Tyreek Hill on 11 receptions. Simply put, there is no one on the Titans defense who is fast enough to keep up with Hill over the course of an entire game. Tennessee has been somewhat fortunate in their first two playoff matches to not have their secondary exposed, thanks to a poor New England passing attack and a panicked Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs offensive arsenal is a completely different animal. I love the plus money value on Hill, the team’s clear top receiver, to eclipse the 100-yard mark.
NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Date: Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Coverage: FOX
Moneyline: GB: (+250) | SF: (-320)
Spread: GB: +7.5 (-105) | SF: -7.5 (-115)
Total: 46 – Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via oddsFire: GB: 56% | SF: 44%
Picks:
Packers +7.5
The 49ers dominated the Packers in their regular season matchup. The conference championship rematch might be happening at the same venue, but I expect a totally different game in terms of competitiveness. From a power ratings standpoint, the Packers haven’t fared too well in the eyes of many handicappers. Aaron Rodgers didn’t have a stellar season in terms of numbers, but he found ways to win. Last week’s win over the Seattle Seahawks saw him throw multiple touch passes with perfection. With a complimentary ground game in Aaron Jones and one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league, Rodgers will have as good of a chance as any against the stout San Francisco defense. Green Bay’s defense has been bent often this season but, in many cases, failed to break. I don’t see the 49ers necessarily lighting up the scoreboard, especially if they choose to go with a run-heavy offense like last week against the Minnesota Vikings. They may not win it outright, but both my analysis and numbers like a Packers cover on Sunday.
Geronimo Allison OVER 14.5 Receiving Yards
Betting any opposing player to go over a yardage prop against the stingy 49ers defense is certainly a bold move. But I like this matchup for Allison perhaps more so than any other Packers receiver. Davante Adams is relatively matchup proof, but Richard Sherman ought to be able to contain him more than the Seahawks did last week. In anticipation that Aaron Rodgers will have to connect with other receivers to sustain drives, I will stand by Allison as the most likely to step up, particularly over the middle of the field. Allison recorded three receptions against the 49ers in the first meeting, a dreadful showing for the Packers on all fronts. Assuming that he will be running routes further than five yards downfield, that same reception total would hit on such a low yardage prop.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts
If the 49ers’ Divisional Round game against the Vikings was any indication, I like the under comfortably on this pass attempts prop for Jimmy Garoppolo. After throwing a critical interception, Kyle Shanahan essentially took the ball completely out of his quarterback’s hands. The fact that the Niners were in relative control likely played a role in the decision, but there have been multiple close games where he failed to eclipse 31 pass attempts this season. His season average for pass attempts per game checks in at 29.75. I like San Francisco to run early and often in this one, making the under the side of choice.
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