With the football season finally upon us, let’s take one final look at the NFL win totals and NFL picks most likely to make you money, as well as some lines to avoid.
I’ll be ranking these in order from my most confident best bets on down.
NFL Win Totals + NFL Picks
Seattle Seahawks – Over 9.5
I am confidently betting the over here.
The Seahawks and Russell Wilson simply win games. Only once in Wilson’s tenure as the Hawks QB have they ever not had double-digit wins. This year will not be the second.
They have never finished worse than second place in the NFC West, and have made the playoffs every year except 2017, which of course is also the only year with less than 10 wins (9-7).
The Hawks offense is set up to be better this year than in years past. Josh Gordon returned to the team, and may play a full 16-game slate for the first time in his career. D.K. Metcalf is set to take a step forward and become more than just a deep target who can out-jump DB’s.
The defense is no longer the “Legion of Boom,” but hasn’t been for quite some time. With the 49ers remaining at the same level, or maybe even taking a slight step back, the Hawks are in a great position, and are gunning to win the division for the first time since 2016.
This line is just simply too low, as I think the Seattle will go 10-6 at a bare minimum.
Green Bay Packers – Over 8.5
Even if you believed the Packers overachieved last year, which many do, they would have to lose an additional five games this year in order for you to lose the bet.
I cannot think of a single team in NFL history who went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship and then fell to a .500 squad the next year without any significant changes.
Matt LaFleur has proven he can hold his own as a head coach, and Aaron Rodgers has more reason than ever to be motivated and prove he’s got many years left in the tank.
This just very simply is not a team who is going to go 8-8.
They also have a very favorable back end of the schedule, playing the Jags, Colts, Lions, Panthers and Bears twice down the stretch. This means they will likely only need to go 4-4 through the first 8 weeks in order for you to cash the bet.
The Packers will likely regress. I do not see another 13-3 or even 12-4 type season on the horizon. However, I certainly do not see an 8-8 NFL win total either.
During the draft, Packers fans everywhere were clamoring for additional help on the offensive side of the ball. Though they did not receive it, the weapons that Rodgers and the packers managed to go 13-3 with last year are all a year more experienced, and a year more knowledgeable and familiar with the playbook and offense as a whole.
Look for guys like Allen Lazard, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Jamaal Williams to step up and become big time players in this Packers offense on your way to cashing another over bet.
New York Giants – Under 6
We have reached our first under NFL win total bet.
As you read this article, please, pull up the Giants schedule and tell me how they possibly come away with six wins, let alone seven.
This is a very safe under bet, and has the calming presence of a possible push if the Giants do over achieve by a game or two.
Even if you are generous, and give them the benefit of the doubt on games they could possibly win, you can still barley make it to five wins.
Even though it won’t happen, let’s say they manage to beat Washington twice, and steal a game from either the Cowboys or the Eagles. They now have three wins. Who are the other four teams they might beat?
The Bengals? Maybe.
The Browns? Maybe.
But certainly not the Steelers, 49ers, Rams, Bucs, Seahawks, Cardinals, or Ravens.
That is a brutal line up of opponents.
This team cannot and will not go 7-9. There just is no chance. In addition to that, you get another very favorable payout at -106 (has moved to -110 in many books but that should make no difference to you).
This team will take a step forward cohesively, and Joe Judge is an improvement over the last string of Giant head coaches, but they are relying on a young QB who will likely see a sophomore slump, and are not good enough to overcome their many weaknesses.
Lock in Giants to go under their NFL win total.
Dallas Cowboys – Over 9.5
The Dallas Cowboys are my pick to get to the Super Bowl from the NFC.
They are working with the most talented roster they have had in years. Any number of offensive players will be able to beat you, as they have great talent at literally every position.
The defense is not as good as I would like it to be, but I honestly think it will not really matter.
You have Dak playing for himself and to prove he is worth the big contract. Zeke is coming into the season without a looming suspension, investigation, or controversy for what seems like the first time since his rookie year.
CeeDee Lamb should make an immediate impact alongside of two top tier receivers in Cooper and Gallup.
To top it off, you have a fresh minded, newly invigorated head coach in Mike McCarthy, who happens to own a winning percentage topped by only three other active coaches. One of them being the greatest of all time Bill Belichick.
I love everything about this Dallas Cowboys team, including their schedule. The should have no problem inside of their own division and will likely beat up on their opponents outside of it.
The only really tough games the Cowboys play this season will likely be against the 49ers, Ravens, and Seahawks.
Say they win even one of those games, they have room to drop the ball on two other occasions, and will still cash this bet with a two-game cushion.
Vegas knows this line is too low, but instead of moving it up to 10.5, they are just going to make you pay.
-150 is the most you’re going to have to lay with any of these NFL win total bets, but I promise you, it is worth it.
Buffalo Bills – Over 9.5
I like the Bills a lot this season, and think they are likely to repeat as division champs.
Even though the Jets and dolphins are attempting to take steps in the right direction, they are nothing to worry about for the Bills.
This is still a two-team race, and this is the first year in the last 20 that there are true questions surrounding the Patriots.
The Bills, and their young stud QB, just keep getting better every year.
Allen’s numbers and accuracy has progressed each and every season under Sean McDermott, and he now has another lethal weapon in Stefon Diggs at his disposal.
They also drafted Zach Moss, a beefy goal line back which will help them be more efficient in the RedZone this year.
Their defense is also much better than it has been in recent years, and could likely be top-10 ranked in many categories come end of the season.
The guaranteed winner here is o8.5 (-159) but if you are really confident in this Buffalo squad, like I am, you can take the much more favorable o9.5 for a +130 payout.
If you’d rather play it safe, I support you, but the difference in payout is a very significant swing, and a chance I’m willing to take.
On a $100 bet, you would make an additional $68 dollars from the o9.5. All the Bills have to do is win one additional game for this NFL win total to hit.
For more NFL win totals and NFL picks, check out Jake’s NFL betting package at PicksCity!
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