Will UNC Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

After coming off of a season that saw UNC basketball enter the NCAA Tournament as a one-seed, things have drastically changed. While filling the shoes of someone like Armando Bacot was going to be impossible, North Carolina has struggled to find anything close to even matching half of that production. With needing to rely so much on R.J. Davis for scoring, his efficiency has taken a step back. As it stands, UNC currently sits at seventh in the ACC basketball standings with a 7-6 conference record and 14-11 record overall.

While the Tar Heels have played a number of great teams this season, they still have yet to come away with a statement win. With such a suspect record, many are asking if UNC Basketball can make the NCAA Tournament.

Will UNC Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

North Carolina is Still Looking For Its Statement Victory

According to KenPom, UNC Basketball has played the 11th-toughest schedule this season. While having a strong strength of schedule rating works in favor of teams, that comes with the assumption that the team can win at least some of those games. So far this season, UNC has been 1-6 in games where they played a ranked opponent, with the one win coming against UCLA, which currently stands unranked. With losses to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida, Duke and Clemson, North Carolina is still missing a statement win or two to prove that they can hang with the big dogs in the NCAA Tournament.

Looking ahead to the rest of the season, the Tar Heels do have a couple of opportunities to get that win. They end their season playing Duke at home. While Duke destroyed them in the first matchup between the two teams, we know that anything can happen in the best rivalry in sports. Also, that will be Senior Night, which should be emotional, as R.J. Davis is set to play his last home game in his illustrious Tar Heel career. Outside of Duke in the regular season though, there is not another team that a win over would be incredible. With Syracuse, North Carolina State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech before Duke, it really feels like UNC has to win out to keep their tournament hopes alive. That being said, when the ACC Tournament comes around, anything can happen, but either way winning against the teams in front of you is the key to success.

UNC Basketball Has the Talent to Go on a Run

With the aforementioned Davis at the helm, UNC basketball will always have an advantage in the form of a go-to guy against anyone that they play. Davis is averaging 17.4 points per game (PPG) on 40% shooting this season. Outside of Davis though, it really feels like UNC is looking for that secondary scorer to show up. Ian Jackson is one of the better freshmen in the country and is scoring 13.3 PPG, while Seth Trimble is scoring 12.2 PPG. Fourth on Carolina’s scoring list is Elliot Cadeau, who is averaging 10.4 PPG. So from those four guards, UNC basketball is getting 52 points, but the focus stands on not a lot of inside scoring. Jalen Washington is UNC’s starting center, but is only giving the team 6.4 PPG. Ven-Allen Lubin is also playing inside but again is not contributing too much, only chipping in 6.6 PPG. The obvious problem here is the lack of consistency at the center position, especially when the big guys get into foul trouble.

While Cadeau is a pass-first guard, I am still convinced that the trio of Davis/Jackson/Trimble is as good as any guard threesome in the country. If all three players can get going at the same time, they have the opportunity to shoot teams out of the gym – I mean look at the Dayton and SMU games.

UNC Basketball is a Long Shot to Make the Tournament

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has the Tar Heels in the First Four Out section of Bracketology. As stated before, the Tar Heels probably need to win each of its next six games against the weaker teams in the ACC and then the big test comes against Duke. If the Tar Heels can finish the regular season undefeated, it boosts their record to 21-11. At that rate, I think they probably hover around that “Last Four In” territory. Unless they can go on a run to win the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels are at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament.

Let’s face it, UNC basketball is at do-or-die time. Running the table is the only option to make the tournament and even though we have seen it in the past, it is hard to believe that a team shooting 46% from the field is going to win seven games in a row. With just around a 28% chance to make the tournament, this may be another failed season for Hubert Davis’ squad.

ACC Basketball Standings

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