With just one game left in the ACC regular season, the North Carolina basketball team is in shaky waters when it comes to their NCAA Tournament resume. Although the Tar Heels have won six in a row and seven of their last eight, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi still has them on the wrong side of the bubble.
With time running out to make a statement, will North Carolina basketball get into this year’s NCAA Tournament?
Will North Carolina Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament?
Odd Resume Plays a Role
At face value, North Carolina should definitely be in the tournament. While a 20-11 overall record isn’t anything special, a 13-6 record in the ACC is usually good enough for a team’s resume. Unfortunately, ACC basketball hasn’t had the best showing this season and is incredibly top-heavy.
Only three teams in the ACC are ranked which is much less than they usually have. In addition, there are very few tournament teams in the conference, making conference losses hurt resumes that much more. Out of their three games so far against teams that are ranked in the ACC (Duke, Louisville and Clemson) the Tar Heels are 0-3 by an average margin of over 16 points. While they do have one game left against Duke at home, the Blue Devils are rolling on all cylinders.
The problem with North Carolina’s resume isn’t just due to the state of ACC basketball, it’s also their lack of quality in their non-conference schedule as well. While North Carolina has played Michigan State, Kansas, and Florida close, they didn’t win any of those games. Their only ranked win this season came against a UCLA team that is no longer ranked and has struggled multiple times this season.
ACC Tournament Provides Opportunity
The biggest knock on North Carolina basketball at the moment is their lack of quality wins on their resume. If North Carolina can’t find a way to knock off Duke this weekend, those calls will get even louder. With that being said, it isn’t all bad in Chapel Hill. If North Carolina is able to keep their hold on a top-four seed, they’ll be rewarded with a double bye and would likely get SMU in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. In the semifinals, they’d likely get a third shot at Duke should they make it.
Even if North Carolina doesn’t secure a double bye in the ACC Tournament, they will get the chance to inflate their record with at least one or two more wins. If they can do that, that may be enough for them to get into the NCAA Tournament as some of the other teams on the bubble will likely stumble at the end of the season.
Related: When Do the 2025 College Basketball Conference Tournaments Start?
Will This North Carolina Basketball Team Make It?
While a big stink will certainly be made if they do, I do think North Carolina basketball will make this year’s NCAA Tournament. While I don’t think they’ll knock off Duke this weekend, they will probably capture one or two more wins in the ACC Tournament which should be enough for them. Depending on the seeding of the tournament, they will probably get another shot at an additional ranked win as well.
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