This is the time of the year that every fantasy football analyst will be posting their top-30, 40 or 50 lists at every position. These lists are always interesting, BUT if they are meant to be a forecast for yearly totals, that is a total waste of time. Why? Because fantasy football is a weekly game! I would much rather have a guy who gives me five backup games of RB2 production and finished 50th in yearly points than someone who grinds out 35th in points for the year but doesn’t crack the top-24 weekly even once. That is why yearly rankings don’t really matter!
Carlos Hyde — ADP: RB45
Last year, despite getting 182 touches, Carlos Hyde finished 49th in points, splitting time in Cleveland and Jacksonville. While with the Browns, he began the season as the starting RB and got over 20 touches on three occasions. Remember, this was a team coached by a guy that also thought Tyrod Taylor was a better play at QB than Baker Mayfield! Once traded to the Jaguars, Hyde saw around eight touches per game, and that is the workload you can expect this year with the Chiefs. Even if Damien Williams gets hurt or is ineffective, it is not likely that Hyde will get more than his usual 6-10 touches and only one season of his five-year career has he had over 33 targets in the passing game. But his yearly total of points is likely to be higher than other running backs being picked from 45th to 55th in drafts. Who cares? Fantasy is a weekly game and I would rather select a backup RB who could get a chance to shine if an injury occurs to the starter.
In PPR format, I would rather have guys like Dion Lewis and Nyheim Hines, who figures to get targeted 5-10 times per game. Guys with a chance to be second on the depth chart, like Donta Foreman with the Texans or Peyton Barber with the Bucaneers are also better investments. Barber had more RB2 weeks than Carlos Hyde last year and, once again, is backup to a guy who hasn’t been able to beat him out for playing time yet.
Weekly Performance Versus Year-Long
Success in fantasy is all about balancing consistency on a weekly basis with big week potential. Who cares if a guy finishes in the top-30 at WR points if he does so by having five big weeks and getting less than five points per week in PPR for eight weeks! You also don’t want the plodders who grind out a top-15 year at TE by grinding out seven points but never finish in the top-10 for the week, causing you to lose by a few points at the position each week. I would rather have a guy who grabs ten top-10 finishes in 12 healthy weeks and sits out four weeks due to nagging injuries. That is why using ONLY yearly rankings of players in fantasy football is nonsense in building your team.
More Articles
Fantasy Football Roster Management 101
Forecasting DeAndre Hopkins’ Fantasy Value
