UConn vs Saint Mary’s Prediction and NCAA Tournament March Madness Expert Picks

In a Second Round NCAA Tournament game, the 4-seed UConn Huskies will face off with the 5-seed Saint Mary’s Gaels in the West Region. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting odds, March Madness expert picks, betting trends and KenPom Rankings, then share our official UConn vs Saint Mary’s prediction for the Second Round matchup. 

UConn vs Saint Mary’s Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks

2023 NCAA Tournament Second Round
No. 4 UConn Huskies (26-8) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-7)
Date: Sunday, March 19, 2023
Time: 6:10 PM EST
Venue: MVP Arena — Albany, NY
Coverage: TNT

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UConn vs Saint Mary’s March Madness Betting Odds

All college basketball betting odds for UConn vs Saint Mary’s can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.

Moneyline: CONN: (-190) | SMC: (+163)
Point Spread: CONN: -4 (-110) | SMC: +4 (-110)
Total: 125 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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KenPom Rankings | Bracketology

KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com

Team	Overall AdjEM (Rk)	AdjO (Rk)	AdjD (Rk)	AdjT (Rk)
UConn	+26.24 (4)	120.1 (3)	93.9 (17)	66.6 (214)
Saint Mary’s	+22.08 (12)	113.2 (40)	91.1 (8)	61.7 (359)

UConn vs Saint Mary’s College Basketball Betting Trends

• Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win.
• The UNDER is 4-0 in the Huskies’ last four games following an ATS win.
• Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record.
• Gaels are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
• Eight of the Gaels’ last 11 NCAA Tournament games have stayed UNDER the total.
• Gaels are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.

UConn vs Saint Mary’s Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks and Bracketology

Both UConn and Saint Mary’s were extremely impressive in their respective First Round victories. The Huskies weathered an early storm before blasting Iona in the second half to win convincingly. Meanwhile, the Gaels relied on the stingy defense that has been the hallmark of the program under Randy Bennett to defeat VCU and easily cover the betting spread.

There are a couple of interesting similarities between these teams to note. One is the extremely high betting power rating that both have carried throughout the season. The other is the fact that their styles of play practically mirror one another. UConn and Saint Mary’s both rank highly in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. This is critical to each team’s success as they both also like to slow down the pace of their games.

Given the fact that both teams identify with slow tempos, it’s no surprise that the betting total for Sunday’s matchup has dipped down to 125. Relative to opening Las Vegas lines, the current game total reflects a 4.5-point move to the Under. With the best of the number long gone, bettors would be wise to explore buying back on the Over at this juncture.

As far as supporting analysis, one can’t help but be concerned with how Saint Mary’s matches up against UConn center, Adama Sanogo. The Gaels have a talented center of their own in Mitchell Saxen, but he is not immune to getting into foul trouble. If Sanogo is able to dominate the offensive glass, the Huskies are bound to earn some extra possessions and quality looks.

With scoring guards like Jordin Hawkins and Aidan Mahaney also present in this matchup, the two teams should combine to surpass the over-adjusted total.

Our official college basketball betting UConn vs Saint Mary’s prediction will be OVER 125 at BetUS. 

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives UConn a 70.3% chance to win.

Bet: OVER 125 (-110 at BetUS Sportsbook)