Toledo vs Ohio Prediction, Odds and College Football Betting Picks for MAC Championship Game

The Buckeye State will be well represented in Saturday’s MAC Championship Game as the Toledo Rockets clash with the Ohio Bobcats. After weeks of playing in the snow and cold, the conference title game will take place indoors at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. Another added wrinkle when it comes to making a Toledo vs Ohio prediction is the injury status for both teams’ starting quarterbacks. Perhaps this is why the Toledo vs Ohio college football betting odds have continued to move towards an even pick’em throughout the week.

The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Toledo vs Ohio prediction for the MAC Championship Game.

Toledo vs Ohio Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

2022 MAC Championship Game
Toledo Rockets (7-5, 5-3 MAC) vs. Ohio Bobcats (9-3, 7-1 MAC)
Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
Time: 12 PM EST
Venue: Ford Field — Detroit, MI
Coverage: ESPN

It was a disappointing end to an otherwise successful regular season for Toledo. The Rockets come into the MAC Championship Game on the heels of two straight losses to Bowling Green and Western Michigan. Fortunately, Toledo had already clinched the MAC West Division thanks to winning five of its first six conference games. Quarterback Dequan Finn missed the Bowling Green game entirely with a lower-body injury. Although he played sparingly against WMU, he was hardly himself.

Speaking of injured quarterbacks, Ohio lost Kurtis Rourke two weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. Despite losing one of the top passers in the nation, the Bobcats still managed to knock off Bowling Green in their regular season finale to win the MAC East Division. Running back Sieh Bangura spearheaded the offense in the victory and figures to be a key cog in the outcome of the Toledo vs Ohio prediction this weekend.

Toledo vs Ohio College Football Betting Picks and Odds

All college football betting odds for Toledo vs Ohio can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: TOL: (-135) | OH: (+115)
Point Spread: TOL: -1.5 (-115) | OH: +1.5 (-105)
Total: 55 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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College Football FEI Ratings

The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this MAC Championship Game matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.

Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders

Team	Overall FEI (Rk)	OFEI (Rk)	DFEI (Rk)
Toledo	-.25 (86)	-.15 (75)	-.14 (66)
Ohio	-.08 (71)	.42 (41)	-.51 (101)

Toledo vs Ohio College Football Betting Trends

• Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
• The total has gone UNDER in each of the Rockets’ last four games following a straight up loss.
• Rockets are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game.
• Bobcats are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
• The OVER is 5-0-1 in the Bobcats’ last six games against teams with a winning record.
• Six of the Bobcats’ last seven games against opponents coming off a conference loss have gone UNDER the total.
• Betting underdogs are 4-2 ATS in the last six Toledo vs Ohio head-to-head matchups.

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Toledo vs Ohio Prediction | College Football Betting Picks

Despite Dequan Finn’s questionable status, bookmakers were still willing to open the Toledo vs Ohio odds with the Rockets as a 4.5-point favorite. Even if backup Tucker Gleason ultimately draws the start, there is little to suggest that Ohio’s defense can slow the Rockets down. The Bobcats finished the regular season ranked 101st out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

If Dequan Finn can't run — and he can't right now with his ankle injury — then Tucker Gleason is clearly Toledo's best option at QB. The Georgia Tech transfer has proven in multiple games this season that he can get the job done, and well.

— Kyle Rowland (@KyleRowland) November 25, 2022

Ohio’s offense has been the backbone of the team all season long. However, without Rourke, the Bobcats could find themselves overly reliant on running back Sieh Bangura. The freshman has run for 90+ yards in all but two games against conference opponents to date. However, he has largely done so with a stellar pass game to compliment him.

Toledo’s defense hasn’t been great this season, but it is a veteran group capable of making life difficult for Ohio backup, CJ Harris. MAC title game history also favors the Rockets as representatives of a West Division that has won five of the last six conference championships.

TOLEDO COVERS will be our official college football betting Toledo vs Ohio prediction for the MAC Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Toledo a 54.5% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: Toledo -1.5 (-115 at Bovada Sportsbook)