The Texas Longhorns are taking on the Baylor Bears at the Foster Pavilion today in what will be a late-season Big 12 showdown with big conference tournament implications. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting picks, odds, betting trends and Haslametrics, then give our Texas vs Baylor prediction for the game tonight.
Texas Longhorns (19-10, 8-8 Big 12) vs. No. 15 Baylor Bears (21-8, 10-6 Big 12)
Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
Time: 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Foster Pavilion — Waco, TX
Coverage: ESPN
All college basketball betting odds for Texas vs Baylor can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TEX: (+225) | BAY: (-277)
Point Spread: TEX: +6.5 (-110) | BAY: -6.5 (-110)
Total: 145.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-105)
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Haslametrics Rankings are from Haslametrics.com
| Team | Rank | Pace | Offensive Eff | Defensive Eff | Momentum |
| Texas | 25 | 67.71 | 116.74 | 96.73 | 0.82 |
| Baylor | 13 | 65.09 | 122.39 | 98.69 | 0.76 |
According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Baylor Bears are projected to outlast the Texas Longhorns 75 to 69.
Texas has struggled in conference play this season and their lack of consistency offensively is why. Over the past six games, the Longhorns have scored over 80 points three times and 67 or less the other three games. Defensively, they have held Kansas State and Texas Tech to 56 and 69 respectively, but also have allowed over 80 points to Houston and Kansas.
The last time the Longhorns faced off against Baylor, both teams were red hot from the field. Both shot over 47% from the field and behind the arc as well. With Max Abmas and Dylan Disu both averaging over 16 points per game and with four players averaging double digits this season, the Longhorns can put up points with the best of them. Unfortunately, their offense can be incredibly inconsistent and it’s hard seeing them play to the level they did in their last matchup with Baylor.
Although Baylor is just 2-2 over their last four games, they have looked pretty impressive. Their two wins were over TCU on the road and #7 Kansas at home. Their two losses were in overtime against #2 Houston and on the road to #25 BYU. Baylor’s offense puts up over 81 points per game which is thanks to their incredible depth.
The Bears have six players who score over 10 points per game, and another three that average over seven off the bench. In addition to their offense, Baylor also gives up just over 70 points per game on defense. With nine games against teams in the Top 25, it isn’t for a lack of competition. After losing to Texas earlier in the season, Baylor has the perfect opportunity to exact revenge while bolstering their claim for a higher seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
Both teams come into this game with something to play for. Although Texas is a near lock to make the tournament. According to Joe Lunardi, they are currently projected to be an eight-seed. A win on the road against a tough Baylor Bears team could not only get them to a seven-seed, it could also help them get a better seed in the Big 12 Tournament.
For Baylor, a win would guarantee them a top-four seed in the Big 12 Tournament that comes with a double bye as well. Currently projected as the bottom three seed, a win over Texas would help secure their status, while a loss could put them in jeopardy of falling to a four seed.
Baylor has proven reliable all season in big moments, the Bears are 5-4 against ranked teams while the Longhorns are just 3-7. Baylor has only lost two games at home this season while Texas is just 4-5 away from home. With a deeper team and a more consistent offense, this game should be a good chance for Baylor to prove that they are one of the elite teams in the Big 12. As long as the Bears can slow down either Dylan Disu or Max Abmas, they should have no problem cruising to a win and, more importantly, covering the spread.
Our college basketball betting Texas vs Baylor prediction tonight will be Baylor -6.5 at BetUS.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Baylor a 76.4% chance to win.
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This post was last modified on March 3, 2024 10:10 PM
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