Wednesday’s college football bowl game schedule concludes with a battle between teams from the Big 12 and SEC. Fans will want to fasten their seat belts for what figures to be a track meet of a Texas Bowl matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Ole Miss Rebels. The offenses of both teams prefer to operate at warp speed, evidenced by the fact that they finished first and sixth, respectively in plays run per game. The Texas Tech vs Ole Miss odds and college football betting picks have pegged the SEC representative as the favorite.
The following game preview provides the college football betting odds, trends and FEI Index ratings before sharing our official Texas Tech vs Ole Miss prediction for the Texas Bowl matchup.
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
Texas Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5, 5-4 Big 12) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4, 4-4 SEC)
Date: Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: NRG Stadium — Houston, TX
Coverage: ESPN
Picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 Conference, Texas Tech largely exceeded expectations in Joey McGuire’s first year as head coach. The Red Raiders’ feistiness was on display early in the year in a pair of overtime wins over Houston and Texas. After suffering an injury in the season-opener, junior quarterback Tyler Shough returned down the stretch and helped breathe life into what was a struggling offense. After losing four of five in the middle of the year, Tech closed with three straight victories.
Ole Miss started the season off by winning each of its first seven games. The strong start included a win over a ranked Kentucky team but lacked much else in terms of quality opposition. Ole Miss suffered its first loss in lopsided fashion against LSU. After letting a golden opportunity (and halftime lead) slip away against Alabama, the Rebs lost their final two games as rumors swirled regarding head coach Lane Kiffin’s future with the program. Kiffin has since agreed to a contract extension to remain in Oxford.
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss College Football Betting Picks and Odds
All college football betting odds for Texas Tech vs Ole Miss can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TTU: (+145) | MISS: (-165)
Point Spread: TTU: +3.5 (-110) | MISS: -3.5 (-110)
Total: 71 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
College Football FEI Ratings
The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings for both teams involved in this Texas Bowl matchup. The purpose of the FEI ratings is to represent the per-possession scoring advantage that a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. The rankings for offense and defense are out of 131 total FBS-level teams.
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings are from Football Outsiders
| Team | Overall FEI (Rk) | OFEI (Rk) | DFEI (Rk) |
| Texas Tech | .36 (35) | .32 (45) | .48 (27) |
| Ole Miss | .57 (18) | 1.16 (13) | .11 (53) |
Texas Tech vs Ole Miss College Football Betting Trends
- Red Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Eight of the Red Raiders’ last ten bowl games have gone OVER the total.
- Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after totaling more than 450 yards of offense in their previous game.
- Rebels are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine bowl games.
- The UNDER is 11-2 in the Rebels’ last 13 games against opponents with a winning record.
- Each of the Rebels’ last five bowl games has gone UNDER the total.
- The total has gone OVER in all four head-to-head meetings between Texas Tech and Ole Miss played since the turn of the century.
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Texas Tech vs Ole Miss Prediction | College Football Betting Picks
Luckily for bettors, the Texas Bowl is not poised to be heavily impacted by players opting out and/or entering the transfer portal. This has proven to be especially rare in games involving SEC teams like Ole Miss. Now that Lane Kiffin also has a contract extension in writing, the Rebels figure to be one of the most complete SEC teams participating in the postseason.
As Ole Miss fell apart down the stretch, plenty of betting analysts and folks on Twitter rushed to judge this team as fraudulent and overrated. However, one must consider the quality of opponents that the Rebels were facing late in the year. The SEC West Division was without a doubt the deepest in all of college football. There’s no shame in losing to teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi State.
From a matchup standpoint, it’s hard not to love the outlook for the Ole Miss ground game in the Texas Bowl. True freshman Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans spearheaded a rushing attack that finished second only to Air Force with 264.2 yards per game. As a whole, the Rebels ranked 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is also more than capable of making plays with his legs.
While the Rebels were busy averaging a whopping 264.2 rushing yards per game, Texas Tech was ceding 177.2 to its opponents. Compounding matters for the Red Raiders in the bowl game is the fact that star linebacker/end Tyree Wilson is out with a season-ending injury that he suffered in early November.
The Red Raiders’ defensive secondary also proved to be vulnerable on multiple occasions this season. Ole Miss is clearly a run-first offense, but don’t overlook the ability of receivers like Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath to beat a defense over the top.
In addition, the fact that Kiffin has plenty of experience leading teams in bowl games is also noteworthy given that this will be Joey McGuire’s first as a head coach. Taking everything into consideration, the 3.5-point spread feels rather cheap. Perhaps the market is overreacting to Ole Miss’ poor finish to the regular season.
OLE MISS COVERS will be our official college football betting Texas Tech vs Ole Miss prediction for the Texas Bowl.
For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Ole Miss a 62.1% chance to win this game outright.
Bet: Ole Miss -3.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)
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