After a chaotic elimination race at Bristol last Saturday, the NASCAR Cup Series now heads to Sin City to kick off the second round of the playoffs. The fourth annual South Point 400 will be run under the lights this Sunday evening at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. For the dozen drivers remaining in the playoffs, it is right back to the grindstone as they work to position themselves to advance on to the Round of 8 in three weeks’ time. With two unpredictable tracks following LVMS in this round, this race could prove to be a make-or-break race for some. A familiar name sits atop the NASCAR betting odds as this week’s favorite.
The following article offers a breakdown of the NASCAR odds and best NASCAR betting picks for Sunday night’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
South Point 400 Race Info
4th South Point 400
Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
Start Time: 7 p.m. EST
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: NBCSN
Distance: 400.5 miles
Stages: Three (Laps 1-80; 81-160; 161-267)
Pole Sitter: Kyle Larson
Defending Champion: Kurt Busch
🏎 Check out the complete South Point 400 starting lineup and race stats!
South Point 400 NASCAR Betting Odds
Kyle Larson (+330) not only will start on the pole Sunday, but he is also the NASCAR betting favorite to win the South Point 400. Big shocker there, right? After his win last weekend at Bristol, Larson now has six victories this season. While it seems like ages ago, the first of those half-dozen wins came in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway back in the spring. Larson dominated that first race and has been the top driver in the NASCAR Cup Series ever since.
The No. 5 car and all of the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets have been particularly stout at tracks where the 550-horsepower package is utilized. Larson is the runaway NASCAR betting favorite to capture the season championship at this juncture. He might very well go back-to-back this Sunday and sweep both races at LVMS in the process.
Joe Gibbs Racing Contenders
Behind Kyle Larson, three of the next four drivers in terms of shortest NASCAR odds on the board are employed by the coach, Joe Gibbs. Given that each has a solid history in Las Vegas, this isn’t a huge shock. Furthermore, one could argue that JGR surpassed Hendrick Motorsports in terms of overall performance in the first round of the playoffs. All four cars from both garages advanced to the Round of 12, but the Camrys did so much more comfortably.
The driver with the second shortest NASCAR betting odds to win the South Point 400 is Kyle Busch (+600). He finished third at his hometown track back in the spring and has a 9.0 average finish spanning his last nine starts at LVMS. Behind him sits Denny Hamlin, arguably the most consistent driver of the NASCAR Playoffs to date. He was fourth in the spring Vegas race and has an average finish of 12.8 over his last ten starts.
🔊 Listen to the Burnt Rubber Racing podcast for more NASCAR betting picks and analysis!
After winning two weeks ago at Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. (+900) rounds out the five drivers with outright odds shorter than 10-1 to win the South Point 400. Truex was sixth in the spring Las Vegas race, and his average finish of 6.0 over his last ten starts is the second-best mark among all NASCAR Cup Series drivers over that span.
History Favors Team Penske
When it comes to historical trends and driver stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, it’s hard to top those of the three Team Penske drivers. Brad Keselowski (+1500) won the first-ever South Point 400 race back in 2018. He has more wins at LVMS (three) than any other active driver. He also owns the best average finish (4.7) over the last ten races at the track. Despite Fords being severely outperformed at the 550-horsepower tracks throughout the season, Keselowski still managed to finish second in the spring race at Vegas.
Not far behind Keselowski in the Pennzoil 400 results were Ryan Blaney (+1400) and Joey Logano (+1100). The two other Penske drivers finished the spring race fifth and ninth, respectively. Each has won at LVMS in the past with Logano winning two of the last five races at the Nevada track. In terms of average finish over the last ten races, Logano is third among all Cup Series drivers at 6.1. Blaney checks in with the sixth-best mark at 9.2. Perhaps there is some NASCAR betting value to be had on the Team Penske squadron this weekend.
South Point 400 NASCAR Betting Picks
South Point 400 Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
As discussed above, Martin Truex Jr. was one of the bright spots for Joe Gibbs Racing in the first round of the NASCAR Playoffs. He overcame two penalties to win at Richmond two weeks ago and has finished top-7 in each of the last three races. His favorable history at LVMS speaks for itself. From the 6.0 average finish over the last ten races to the pair of wins he has, including the 2019 South Point 400, Truex has been a factor on the regular in Sin City. The No. 19 car was sixth in the Pennzoil 400 back in March. While it’s hard to argue against NASCAR betting favorite Kyle Larson (as is the case most weeks), the value to win outright lies with MTJ at 9-1 odds.
Other South Point 400 NASCAR Betting Picks
Top 3 Finish: William Byron (+400)
It took a top-3 finish last week for William Byron to even advance out of the first round of the playoffs. He now actually begins the Round of 12 above the cutline after the standings reset thanks to the incredibly consistent year he had. Among his solid runs was an eighth-place finish at Las Vegas back in the spring. Another argument in Byron’s favor this weekend is the success of Chevrolets at the 550-horsepower tracks this season. LVMS fits that category, and we certainly know that Byron has premium equipment driving for HMS. After being one of the most steady and consistent drivers all season, Byron’s first-round struggles have to be viewed as an anomaly. We’ll ride with the No. 24 this weekend and aim to cash a 4-1 NASCAR betting ticket on a South Point 400 top-3.
Top 5 Finish: Brad Keselowski (+210)
If there’s any Ford that has a chance to crack the top-5 in the South Point 400, it would be the No. 2 of Brad Keselowski. Since the start of the playoffs, Keselowski has posted finishes of seventh, fourteenth and sixth, respectively. He has been running more consistently than he had during the regular season and is now headed to a track where he has been more consistent than any other active driver. His three wins and 4.7 average finish over the last ten lead the Cup Series field. Essentially, we are getting better than 2-1 odds on Keselowski to achieve a result that he has averaged over the last ten races. When it comes to NASCAR betting value, that’s simply too good to pass up.
Best Finish in Group D: Ross Chastain (+290)
We may not have hit our top-10 ticket with Ross Chastain last weekend but it’s not time to abandon ship just yet. Given how poor both Chip Ganassi Racing Camaros were last Saturday at Bristol, the fact that Chastain still managed to finish 14th almost feels like a moral victory. This week, Chastain finds himself in Group D along with three other non-playoff drivers. He has been running better than each of Matt DiBenedetto (+250), Tyler Reddick (+250) and Austin Dillon (+290) since the playoffs began.
While Chastain doesn’t have great historical stats at Las Vegas, keep in mind that Chastain has been in vastly inferior equipment compared to what he has in the No. 42 for Ganassi car this season. Furthermore, this race will start before sundown and finish under the lights. All season long, the CGR cars have come on strong in primetime races after sunset when the track cools off. Look no further than Chastain’s drive at Darlington for proof. With momentum on his side, he is a great NASCAR betting pick to win this four-man horse race.
Team of Race Winner: Team Penske (+450)
While betting on a team of Mustangs to win the South Point 400 seems risky given how Ford has fared on the low-horsepower tracks this season, Team Penske’s history of success at LVMS is too good to ignore. The +450 odds on this team wager get us three drivers who have a legitimate shot to win Sunday’s race. We hashed out the stats and success for each of Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney at this track above. While betting on one of them at double-digit odds is tough, having all three under one umbrella makes for one solid NASCAR betting ticket.
