The Saint Mary’s Gaels and Grand Canyon Antelopes face off in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament. This Saint Mary’s Gaels team has the distinction of becoming the first team other than Gonzaga to win the outright WCC Regular Season title since they did it in 2011-12. On the back of one of the defensive teams in the country, the Gaels are looking for a strong run. As for Grand Canyon, they are almost the exact opposite of Saint Mary’s, as they feature one of the country’s best offensives in the country.
Below, we will preview this NCAA Tournament college basketball game, giving a Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon prediction and other March Madness expert picks. Which school will win and keep their hopes of winning the championship trophy alive?
Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon Prediction and March Madness Expert Picks
2024 NCAA Tournament
No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-7) vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes (29-4)
Date: Friday, March 22, 2024
Time: 10:05 PM EST
Venue: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena — Spokane, WA
Coverage: TruTV
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Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon March Madness Odds
All college basketball betting odds for Kansas vs Samford can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.
Moneyline: SM: (-220) | GC: (+180)
Point Spread: SM: -5.5 (-110) | GC: +5.5 (-110)
Total: 131.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
KenPom Rankings | Bracketology
KenPom Rankings are from KenPom.com
| Team | Rk | AdjO | AdjD | AdjT |
| Saint Mary’s | 20 | 114.9 (45) | 95.0 (16) | 61.9 (358) |
| Grand Canyon | 53 | 113.5 (63) | 99.6 (51) | 68.1 (134) |
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Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon College Basketball Trends
- Saint Mary’s is 9-6 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- Samford is 10-1 in non-conference college basketball games this season.
- The OVER is 17-15 in Saint Mary’s basketball games this season.
- The OVER is 17-15 in Grand Canyon basketball games this season.
- Saint Mary’s is 2-2 in NCAA Tournament games since 2019.
- Grand Canyon is 0-2 in NCAA Tournament games since 2019.
Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon Prediction | March Madness Expert Picks
Like I said off the bat, these teams are almost exact opposites of each other in regards to gameplay. Saint Mary’s is looking to slow their offense down and work for good shots, as proved by their fifth-slowest tempo in the country. On the other hand, Grand Canyon is above average when it comes to pace of play. Led by head coach and former NCAA Tournament legend Bryce Drew, the Antelopes shoot 46.5% from the field, which ranks 73rd in the country. Saint Mary’s fits right along there, as they shoot 46.9% from the field, which ranks 59th in the country.
While the offenses produce similar numbers, that is where the similarities end. Grand Canyon’s defense is not bad by any means. In fact, I would call it good, but it is nothing like Saint Mary’s. The Gaels give up just 58.7 PPG and allow teams to shoot just 39.5% from the field (second and eighth in the country, respectively). On top of that, Saint Mary’s holds teams to 4.9 three-point makes per game. On defense, the Antelopes allow 66.9 PPG, which ranks 46th in the country, and holds opposing teams to 40.5% shooting from the field, which ranks 20th in the country.
If you have watched Grand Canyon at all this season, you know that they are a good team. They are a fun story that should be taken against three out of the four 5-seeds in this season’s tournament. However, the problem is that they drew Saint Mary’s. The Gaels have been ranked at the top of the mid-major rankings all season long. Saint Mary’s is probably better than their 5-seed ranking and, based on defense alone, can certainly make a run to the Sweet 16. For our Saint Mary’s vs Grand Canyon prediction, we are picking the Saint Mary’s Gaels to win and move on in the NCAA Tournament.
