The Purdue Boilermakers are taking on the Illinois Fighting Illini at the State Farm Center today in what will be a late-season showdown between the two top teams in the Big Ten. Let’s take a look at the top college basketball betting picks, odds, betting trends and Haslametrics, then give our Purdue vs Illinois prediction for the game tonight. 

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction | College Basketball Game Tonight

Purdue Boilermakers (26-3, 15-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten)
Date: Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM EST
Venue: State Farm Center — Champaign, IL
Coverage: Peacock

Purdue vs Illinois College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds

All college basketball betting odds for Purdue vs Illinois can be found at BetUS Sportsbook.

Moneyline: PUR: (-102) | ILL: (-118)
Point Spread: PUR: +1.5 (-110) | ILL: -1.5 (-110)
Total:  164.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

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Haslametrics Rankings

Haslametrics Rankings are from

TeamRankPaceOffensive EffDefensive EffMomentum

According to Haslametrics’ All-Play Estimates and automated game preview, the Purdue Boilermakers are projected to outlast the Illinois Fighting Illini 83 to 81.

  • Purdue is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in Purdue’s last five games.
  • Illinois is 3-2 ATS over their last five games.
  • The OVER is 11-7 for Illinois in their last 18 home games.

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Credit: Jamie Rhodes/USA TODAY Sports

Purdue Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks

Purdue has won 12 of their last 13, but they have shown some cracks as of late. Outside of a four-point loss to Ohio State, they have struggled to pull away from lowly Michigan and Michigan State in their last two games. Purdue is much more than Zach Edey this year and have quite an unheralded X-factor in guard Braden Smith. Over the last three games, Smith averages over 15 points, eight rebounds, and six assists per game.

Purdue has many more contributors than just Smith as well. Lance Jones and Fletcher Layer both average over 10 points per game. Purdue can and will play nine deep which gives them depth that they’ve needed for years. Although they are not a great road team, they have shown the ability to be more than the one-dimensional Purdue everyone sees every March.

Illinois Preview | College Basketball Betting Picks

Coming into the season, Illinois was ranked 25th and looked good early. The Fighting Illini got all the way up to ninth before a loss to Purdue kicked off a 3-3 stretch over their next six games. Since then, Illinois has gone 8-2 thanks to an offense that has shown the ability to score at will. Over their last nine games, Illinois averages over 91 points per game.

There is no question that Terrence Shannon Jr. would be the leader of the offense this year, but the scoring of Coleman Hawkins and Marcus Domask has taken this Illinois offense to another level. Domask has scored in double digits every game but two with a 31-point performance against Wisconsin in their last outing. The only question that remains about this team is their defense. Illinois has surrendered over 80 points in their last five games and in seven of their last eight.

Purdue vs Illinois Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks

Although Purdue has a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings with just two games left to play, there is still plenty to be determined. With a win, Purdue clinches the Big Ten regular season title outright. With a loss, things could get messy as Purdue plays a cold but still dangerous Wisconsin team in the last game of the season.

There should be plenty of scoring in this game, but this game can certainly become a scrappy defensive affair relatively quickly if either team gets into foul trouble early. In the last meeting between these two teams, Purdue outlasted Illinois 83-78 in a game that would’ve hit the under with the current over/under line where it is.

This game will be too close to call as this game is a true “pick’em.” With little value in the spread or picking the winner straight up, it’s best to bet on the total line. From what we’ve seen in the past, it makes the most sense to bet the under for this matchup.

Our college basketball betting Purdue vs Illinois prediction tonight will be UNDER 164.5 at BetUS

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Purdue a 55.7% chance to win.

Bet: UNDER 164.5

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1/2 Gurley Guys Todd Gurley Fan Club. Fantasy sports addict. Former Writer for Frednare Sports and Macro Sports. Graduated from UW-Platteville in 2019. Bucks in 6.

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